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PostPosted: Wed Aug 18, 2021 8:05 am 
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54% is not a resounding endorsement to make the playoffs, but I am glad that this game is played on the field rather than in the math department. I am just finishing up a statistics class, so, I do appreciate the difficult probability math that goes behind these percentages though.

Kyle Crabbs (DolphinsWire) wrote:
How does FPI rank the Dolphins’ playoff probabilities? Better than a coin toss odds to make the playoffs, for starters. Here are FPI’s postseason odds for Miami:

* Make the playoffs: 54.1% (2nd in AFCE behind Buffalo)
* Win the division: 22.7% (3rd in AFCE behind Buffalo & New England)
* Make the divisional round: 27.7%
* Make the AFC Championship game: 12.2%
* Make the Super Bowl: 5.1%
* Win the Super Bowl: 2.3%


https://dolphinswire.usatoday.com/2021/ ... scenarios/

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 18, 2021 9:42 am 
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Too me, it sounds about right, 50-50...

Maybe we do, maybe we don't.

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 18, 2021 11:40 am 
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Kyle Crabbs (DolphinsWire) wrote:
* Make the AFC Championship game: 12.2%
* Make the Super Bowl: 5.1%
* Win the Super Bowl: 2.3%


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 18, 2021 12:50 pm 
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Big Dave wrote:
54% is not a resounding endorsement to make the playoffs, but I am glad that this game is played on the field rather than in the math department. I am just finishing up a statistics class, so, I do appreciate the difficult probability math that goes behind these percentages though.

Kyle Crabbs (DolphinsWire) wrote:
How does FPI rank the Dolphins’ playoff probabilities? Better than a coin toss odds to make the playoffs, for starters. Here are FPI’s postseason odds for Miami:

* Make the playoffs: 54.1% (2nd in AFCE behind Buffalo)
* Win the division: 22.7% (3rd in AFCE behind Buffalo & New England)
* Make the divisional round: 27.7%
* Make the AFC Championship game: 12.2%
* Make the Super Bowl: 5.1%
* Win the Super Bowl: 2.3%


https://dolphinswire.usatoday.com/2021/ ... scenarios/


I think the most interesting part of this post is that you are taking a statistics class. What course is it and why are you taking it? Are you enjoying it? Finding it useful?


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 18, 2021 1:15 pm 
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prof123 wrote:
I think the most interesting part of this post is that you are taking a statistics class. What course is it and why are you taking it? Are you enjoying it? Finding it useful?


It's one of the hardest classes I've taken as my head is swimming with formulas, probabilities, etc. Very cool class though, but it is an undergraduate class I need for my master's research class I'll take in the fall.

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 18, 2021 5:08 pm 
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Big Dave wrote:
prof123 wrote:
I think the most interesting part of this post is that you are taking a statistics class. What course is it and why are you taking it? Are you enjoying it? Finding it useful?


It's one of the hardest classes I've taken as my head is swimming with formulas, probabilities, etc. Very cool class though, but it is an undergraduate class I need for my master's research class I'll take in the fall.


I remember taking a sadistics class at NCSU I could only pull B's on all the tests until the final, the prof said if you make higher on the final than you have averaged in the class he would give you what you made on the final because it was so complete and exhaustive.

I really appreciated him for that, because I needed some good grades for my gpa.

What I remember was all of the formulas you had to remember and then of course which ones to use and in what order based on the questions asked.

It was in Harrelson Hall because most of the math courses were there. I heard somewhere they took the old round building down.


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 19, 2021 12:41 am 
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Big Dave wrote:
prof123 wrote:
I think the most interesting part of this post is that you are taking a statistics class. What course is it and why are you taking it? Are you enjoying it? Finding it useful?


It's one of the hardest classes I've taken as my head is swimming with formulas, probabilities, etc. Very cool class though, but it is an undergraduate class I need for my master's research class I'll take in the fall.


Shoot me a private message if you ever want/need help, and I'll help if I can. It is always interesting to know the kinds of problems other profs assign.


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 19, 2021 8:23 am 
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prof123 wrote:
Shoot me a private message if you ever want/need help, and I'll help if I can. It is always interesting to know the kinds of problems other profs assign.


It's my last week with a big exam on Friday, but when I see graphs like this and hear "standard deviations" as in this article from PFF this morning, I know exactly what they are talking about. Of course, I believe there are variables they are not considering if they're predicting Jalen Hurts to make the biggest jump this year for a second year QB.

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https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-second-yea ... nfl-season

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