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 Post subject: Mock Draft 2.0
PostPosted: Mon Apr 05, 2021 7:27 pm 
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Jamroz Mock 2.0

With just three weeks until the draft here are my best guesses about Round 1 and who else Miami may be pursuing on Day 2. The trade for Sam Darnold and the 49ers suddenly demanding a 1st Round pick for Jimmy Garoppolo gave me a much better idea of how the first four picks may play it. This is very good news for Miami. Here goes!

1. Trevor Lawrence QB Jaguars

2. Zach Wilson QB Jets

3. Trey Lance QB 49ers

4. Justin Fields QB Falcons

5. Ja'Marr Chase WR Bengals

6. Kyle Pitts TE Dolphins

7. Jaylen Waddle WR Lions

8. Penei Sewell OT Panthers

9. Patrick Surtain II CB Broncos

10. Rashawn Slater OT Cowboys

11. Jaycee Horn CB Giants

12. Devonta Smith WR Eagles

13. Christian Darisaw OT Chargers

14. Micah Parsons Edge/LB Vikings

15. Zaven Collins LB Patriots

16. Najee Harris RB Cardinals

17. Caleb Fairley CB Raiders

18. Creed Humphrey C Dolphins

19. Mac Jones QB Football Team

20. Samuel Cosmi OT Bears

21. Kwity Paye Edge Colts

22. Dillon Radunz OT Titans

23. Travis Etienne RB Jets

24. Alijah Vera-Tucker OT/G Steelers

25. Trevon Moehrig S Jaguars

26. Jeremiah Owusu Koramoah LB Browns

27. Joseph Ossai Edge Ravens

28. Rashod Bateman WR Saints

29. Jalen Mayfield OT Packers

30. Carlos Basham Edge Bills

31. Teven Jenkins OT Chiefs

32. Christian Barmore DT Bucs

Okay, so let's look at a few things. As I previously mentioned, the QB moves today make me think it will go 1-2-3-4 for the first time ever. Even if the 49ers deal Jimmy Garoppolo to the Patriots they will have choices for veteran stop gaps whether it is Gardner Minshew, Teddy Bridgewater or even Alex Smith. I also think the Bengals will opt for Ja'Marr Chase and with the thought of grabbing someone like Alex Leatherwood in Round 2.

Miami gets to grab an athletic freak who can change their offense. I still worry that they may love Devonta Smith too much, as Tony Pauline and Benjamin Allbright have consistently mentioned, but you can find his skill set later in the draft. Pitts has an incredibly rare size and speed combo that is too difficult to pass up. I bet Miami knew that one of him or Chase would be available at 6 and therefore Chris Grier made the move.

Now I bet some of you will be disappointed with Creed Humphrey at 18. You'll probably ask why not a pass rusher or a trade up for Najee Harris. Tony Pauline has Humphrey as the 22nd ranked prospect in the country. Miami has also been missing a consistent presence in the middle since peak Mike Pouncey. To my knowledge, Humphrey has no injury issues and was a dominant presence for the Sooners. I read that Miami really like him at the Senior Bowl. If Grier does not trade back he will take BPA and I believe Humphrey is that guy at 18.

As for Mac Jones, I do not see him as top 10 material. I think that is your major fluff story of the draft season. Washington getting him around 19 feels right, especially with word that he would be drafted much higher than expected being circulated back in December. I think a guy with a mid round grade now going Round 1 makes sense for that scenario.

Miami has three selections on Day 2 and I believe they could have more by trading back. With Najee Harris being picked before 18 the attention could shift to Javonte Williams at pick 36. Adding both Humphrey and Williams would go a long way towards boosting the RPO that Flores wants to run. I did not realize that Williams is especially good at pass blocking which is something Tua Tagovailoa will need. If they stand pat at picks 50 and 81 I would imagine pass rusher and another wide receiver would be important. There were rumors of addressing cornerback but my hunch is that was smoke to keep teams guessing or pursue possible targets prior to Miami picking at 36. Rashad Weaver is an Edge I would strongly keep my eye on. Tylan Wallace is the WR I hope they target, but I would also be happy with Amon Ra St. Brown. I would love if they could trade back to grab an extra Day 2 pick. We'll see if Chris Grier is ready to wheel and deal.

Hope you enjoy it!


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 Post subject: Re: Mock Draft 2.0
PostPosted: Mon Apr 05, 2021 8:13 pm 
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Nice job Dan. I agree that trading down a couple of spots from 6 to a QB needy team seems less likely now that Carolina made their move.

Random thoughts:
I think some good Edge guys may be pushed down into round 2, maybe like Basham. He's a guy I have been hoping we get for a while now.
I'll be very disappointed if we don't get one of the top 3 RBs in this class. I agree we can get a good WR later. I was a little surprised you had Radunz so high; I have seen him projected on day 2 a lot.


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 Post subject: Re: Mock Draft 2.0
PostPosted: Mon Apr 05, 2021 9:15 pm 
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k-dash wrote:
Nice job Dan. I agree that trading down a couple of spots from 6 to a QB needy team seems less likely now that Carolina made their move.

Random thoughts:
I think some good Edge guys may be pushed down into round 2, maybe like Basham. He's a guy I have been hoping we get for a while now.
I'll be very disappointed if we don't get one of the top 3 RBs in this class. I agree we can get a good WR later. I was a little surprised you had Radunz so high; I have seen him projected on day 2 a lot.


I think there is enough buzz on Basham that he creeps into Round 1. Rousseau seems to be the overinflated Edge prospect.

Radunz has been well thought of for a while. I read about his name creeping into Round 1 months ago because he has very clean film. I think he is a better pure tackle prospect than Mayfield or Vera-Tucker, and that is what the Titans need. Jenkins is more right tackle so I put Radunz ahead for versatility purposes.


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 Post subject: Re: Mock Draft 2.0
PostPosted: Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:21 pm 
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This looks pretty good to me. I think you are right that QBs for in the first four picks, and the Dolphins will pick either Chase or Pitts.

Another prediction I have is that Harris will be available at 18 ... and we will pass on him.

The current CBS mock has Harris as the third RB taken, dropping all the way down into the 40s. I don't see that happening.


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 Post subject: Re: Mock Draft 2.0
PostPosted: Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:29 pm 
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Really nice Mock Draft Jammer!

Do you think Humphrey is the annual player the mockers like less than the teams? There's always at least one.

For another Day 2 DE, Ellerson Smith, Northern Iowa. I think he'll go much higher than mocked. I believe Flores had him at the Senior Bowl.

I wonder if Miami likes Etienne enough to take him at #18 if Harris is gone and they can't move back. I can also see the Dolphins RB draft looking a lot like last year's. Gainwell/Stevenson in the 3rd/4th if that's the case.

I think Jamin Davis, LB, Kentucky might start sneaking into the 1st Round in mock drafts. He's really good.

I wouldn't count out Quinn Meinerz as a Day 2 Dolphins pick if they miss out on Humphrey and Dickerson. He's Landon Dickerson/Elgton Jenkins strong in the middle. Another Senior Bowl guy too.

If the Dolphins go with Pitts, I wonder if they'll go with a speed/route running/hands WR like Moore, Eskridge, or Felton?

I'm still crushing on Ben St. Juste as a potential early Day 3 DB.


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 Post subject: Re: Mock Draft 2.0
PostPosted: Tue Apr 06, 2021 6:56 am 
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jgod1 wrote:
I think Jamin Davis, LB, Kentucky might start sneaking into the 1st Round in mock drafts. He's really good.


This right here is why I put Radunz in Round 1. There are always those guys who the media says are Day 2 people but they end up a 1st Rounder.

If Miami trades back from 18, which I hope they do, I can see some of the names you mentioned being in play.

As for Humphrey, I've seen a few mockers putting him in Round 1. He's been a touted prospect for years and I wanted Miami to grab him last year but he opted to stay in college.


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 Post subject: Re: Mock Draft 2.0
PostPosted: Tue Apr 06, 2021 6:57 am 
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prof123 wrote:
Another prediction I have is that Harris will be available at 18 ... and we will pass on him.


You could be on to something here. I have a feeling their guy is Javonte Williams but word out of the Senior Bowl was Flores liked Michael Carter. Grier could be crazy enough to actually try and bring that duo to Miami as the new 1-2 punch.


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 Post subject: Re: Mock Draft 2.0
PostPosted: Tue Apr 06, 2021 7:44 am 
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jammer wrote:
18. Creed Humphrey C Dolphins


Nice job, Dan, and I think you are in-tuned here with that position. The Dolphins will draft a center in this draft. With that said, why not get the best one? You won't see the Dolphins draft two offensive linemen in the first round or even through two rounds which means Sewell isn't a consideration in my opinion.

Barry Jackson just posted this.

Barry Jackson (Miami Herald) wrote:
We’re told something interesting happened after the Dolphins signed Baltimore center Matt Skura to a one-year, $1.75 million contract in free agency: They continued pursuing Patriots center David Andrews for another couple of days.

Miami made a solid offer to Andrews, very comparable in annual payment to what he ultimately took from the Patriots.

Three days after the Dolphins signed Skura on March 19, Andrews opted for New England over Miami, accepting a four-year Patriots deal that averages $4.7 million per year but has no guaranteed money after 2022. But the Dolphins’ signing of Skura did not affect Andrews’ decision.

Ultimately, Andrews decided to re-sign with New England because of quality-of-life issues and the fact that he was happy playing for the Patriots.

Still, the Dolphins left a favorable impression; Dolphins coach Brian Flores reached out directly to recruit him.


Read more here: https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt- ... rylink=cpy

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 Post subject: Re: Mock Draft 2.0
PostPosted: Tue Apr 06, 2021 9:33 am 
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The only monkey wrench I can see is if the rumors (from Allbright) are true that teams are all over the map with their assessment of Fields. Maybe he slides into Patriots territory. That also would mean Atlanta grabs Pitts.


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 Post subject: Re: Mock Draft 2.0
PostPosted: Tue Apr 06, 2021 10:54 am 
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Pitts is the most logical choice. Linebackers can't cover him. Most safeties can't cover him. Corners can't cover him. He frees up Gesicki (or they free each other up). The Dolphins can attack the seams and the middle of the field with quick throws and open things up on the outside for Fuller and Parker.

This approach worked well for Tom Brady, who for most of his career struggled with accuracy on outside deep throws.

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 Post subject: Re: Mock Draft 2.0
PostPosted: Tue Apr 06, 2021 12:29 pm 
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Now both Breer and Schefter are reporting that Atlanta is talking to teams about trading out of the 4th pick.

To me this indicates that the 49ers want Trey Lance.


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 Post subject: Re: Mock Draft 2.0
PostPosted: Tue Apr 06, 2021 12:40 pm 
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If 4 QBs go inside the top 5 that kinda tells me how incompetent and fever hit for QBs some of these NFL execs are. 1983 is still considered the best QB draft ever, right? Those guys went all throughout the 1st round. This reeks of pathetic desperation. I’m not knocking your mock, just the state of the league.

Only Sunshine is worthy. The rest are charlatans. Product of modern media hype that love to sell snake oil.

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 Post subject: Re: Mock Draft 2.0
PostPosted: Tue Apr 06, 2021 12:49 pm 
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jammer wrote:
Now both Breer and Schefter are reporting that Atlanta is talking to teams about trading out of the 4th pick.

To me this indicates that the 49ers want Trey Lance.


How far down is Atlanta looking to go? That might indicate what they are looking for, or they may just be wanting to accumulate quality picks. There is a lot of variation in how some of the top-tier players are viewed. Some have Slater ahead of Sewell. Some think Surtain is a top-10 pick, but he also drops to the late teens in some mock drafts. There is one school of thought that it is good to trade 2021 picks for future picks, when it will be easier to evaluate players.


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 Post subject: Re: Mock Draft 2.0
PostPosted: Tue Apr 06, 2021 3:30 pm 
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If Sewell is available at 6, Phins will take him.

- OL is a greater need than WR.
- Per Dave's previous post, the success rate is more than double for OL vs WR picked in the 1st rd.
- Phin's big FA acquisition was WR.

Move Hunt to guard and plug in Sewell.....things will be a lot easier for Tua.


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 Post subject: Re: Mock Draft 2.0
PostPosted: Tue Apr 06, 2021 3:47 pm 
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Now Schefter saying he expects the 49ers to take Mac Jones.

Either this is peak lying season or I am missing something in the Jones evaluation.


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 Post subject: Re: Mock Draft 2.0
PostPosted: Tue Apr 06, 2021 4:32 pm 
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shularino wrote:
If Sewell is available at 6, Phins will take him.

- OL is a greater need than WR.
- Per Dave's previous post, the success rate is more than double for OL vs WR picked in the 1st rd.
- Phin's big FA acquisition was WR.

Move Hunt to guard and plug in Sewell.....things will be a lot easier for Tua.


I don't think there is any chance of this if Pitts or Chase is still on the board. However, if not, and they can't trade down a few spots with a team who wants to take whatever QB is still available, then I would be okay with them taking Sewell. If so, they do need to take a WR with one of their next two picks. Perhaps Bateman at 18 or Katoney at 36. Jammer knows that second tier of WRs better than I do.


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 Post subject: Re: Mock Draft 2.0
PostPosted: Tue Apr 06, 2021 4:45 pm 
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prof123 wrote:
I don't think there is any chance of this if Pitts or Chase is still on the board. However, if not, and they can't trade down a few spots with a team who wants to take whatever QB is still available, then I would be okay with them taking Sewell. If so, they do need to take a WR with one of their next two picks. Perhaps Bateman at 18 or Katoney at 36. Jammer knows that second tier of WRs better than I do.


Seems strange an OT touted as the best O Line prospect in the past several years is being projected by so many to fall to 8 or beyond. I understand the first 3 picks will go QB, but this will be the first time, I can remember, so many teams passing on a LT with his talents. Maybe a mute point for the Phins, because the Bengals really, really should draft him.


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 Post subject: Re: Mock Draft 2.0
PostPosted: Tue Apr 06, 2021 7:47 pm 
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shularino wrote:
Seems strange an OT touted as the best O Line prospect in the past several years is being projected by so many to fall to 8 or beyond. I understand the first 3 picks will go QB, but this will be the first time, I can remember, so many teams passing on a LT with his talents. Maybe a mute point for the Phins, because the Bengals really, really should draft him.


Sewell missed half his freshman year due to injury, got the reputation you mentioned in 2019 and opted out of last year.

There are also rumors about his demeanor (to be fair the same was said about Herbert at Oregon last year).

He has one dominant year in three eligible seasons. I can see why teams might be hesitant.


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 Post subject: Re: Mock Draft 2.0
PostPosted: Tue Apr 06, 2021 7:49 pm 
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Probably the two best bets for Miami is Pitts and Sewell. One of them should be available and both of them are safer picks (IMO) than a WR. Not arguing here against Chase or Smith, but I don’t see them as having quite as much value as a solid LT or seem busting TE. We can acquire other WR talent in the late first or second round.


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 Post subject: Re: Mock Draft 2.0
PostPosted: Tue Apr 06, 2021 9:06 pm 
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I agree with Phin...I can see selecting a TE because it’s more of a premium position when you have the right guy than WRs that is more a dime a dozen position. Smith seems like a great guy but selecting a wideout in the 1st round will always be a very hard sell to me. It’s the last position you’d normally value that high.

Pitts appears more of a rare commodity.

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 Post subject: Re: Mock Draft 2.0
PostPosted: Tue Apr 06, 2021 9:07 pm 
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shularino wrote:
Seems strange an OT touted as the best O Line prospect in the past several years is being projected by so many to fall to 8 or beyond. I understand the first 3 picks will go QB, but this will be the first time, I can remember, so many teams passing on a LT with his talents. Maybe a mute point for the Phins, because the Bengals really, really should draft him.


The truth is, we are all blowing smoke when we say what is best. If it were a certainly that Sewell would go on to have an HOF career like Anthony Munoz, then I think we all would agree that he should probably be the #1 overall pick, let alone be the first non QB drafted. Who of us can say he won't be another Munoz? Or, that Chase won't be Randy Moss or Smith won't be a smaller (but faster) Jerry Rice.

One thing that is clear, though, is that one can be a HOFer offensive lineman without helping his team win. Look at Joe Thomas and the Browns. This is much less likely at the skill positions.


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 Post subject: Re: Mock Draft 2.0
PostPosted: Wed Apr 07, 2021 2:08 am 
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prof123 wrote:
If it were a certainly that Sewell would go on to have an HOF career like Anthony Munoz, then I think we all would agree that he should probably be the #1 overall pick, let alone be the first non QB drafted.


Jax would still draft Lawrence with that knowledge. Sewell would easily beat out the rest after him.

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 Post subject: Re: Mock Draft 2.0
PostPosted: Wed Apr 07, 2021 7:26 am 
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prof123 wrote:
jammer wrote:
Now both Breer and Schefter are reporting that Atlanta is talking to teams about trading out of the 4th pick.

To me this indicates that the 49ers want Trey Lance.


How far down is Atlanta looking to go? That might indicate what they are looking for, or they may just be wanting to accumulate quality picks. There is a lot of variation in how some of the top-tier players are viewed. Some have Slater ahead of Sewell. Some think Surtain is a top-10 pick, but he also drops to the late teens in some mock drafts. There is one school of thought that it is good to trade 2021 picks for future picks, when it will be easier to evaluate players.


I go back and forth with Atlanta, but they are coming off of a 4 win season with Matty Ice and him being 35. Previously, they had two 7 win season in a row. They also have a new head coach. They have to be thinking "rebuild". If they stay at 4 they may pull the trigger on a QB and reboot the franchise or trade down for more picks.

I really like Justin Fields ... a lot. I was a big fan of Lamar Jackson coming out of college, too.

NBC Sports Edge wrote:
ESPN's Adam Schefter reports multiple NFL teams have contacted the Falcons about acquiring the No. 4 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, and that the team is "open" to moving out of the fourth spot.

Meanwhile, ESPN's Chris Mortensen said Tuesday that Atlanta general manager Terry Fontenot and head coach Arthur Smith are split on using the fourth overall pick to draft a QB of the future -- presumably North Dakota State's Trey Lance. Quarterback-desperate teams like the Broncos, Patriots, Football Team, and the Lions should be banging down the Falcons' door in the weeks leading up to the draft. Acquiring the No. 4 pick is the last chance teams have to get one of the top QBs in this year's class. Of course, Atlanta could always keep the pick and supercharge their offense with phenom tight end Kyle Pitts.


https://www.nbcsports.com/edge/football ... thur-smith

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 Post subject: Re: Mock Draft 2.0
PostPosted: Wed Apr 07, 2021 8:52 am 
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NBC Sports Edge wrote:
ESPN's Adam Schefter reports multiple NFL teams have contacted the Falcons about acquiring the No. 4 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, and that the team is "open" to moving out of the fourth spot.

Meanwhile, ESPN's Chris Mortensen said Tuesday that Atlanta general manager Terry Fontenot and head coach Arthur Smith are split on using the fourth overall pick to draft a QB of the future -- presumably North Dakota State's Trey Lance. Quarterback-desperate teams like the Broncos, Patriots, Football Team, and the Lions should be banging down the Falcons' door in the weeks leading up to the draft. Acquiring the No. 4 pick is the last chance teams have to get one of the top QBs in this year's class. Of course, Atlanta could always keep the pick and supercharge their offense with phenom tight end Kyle Pitts.



Atlanta should trade out........they need defensive help and they don't need the 4th pick to get a premier defensive player. Good news for the Phins to have the first 4 picks go QB. That only leaves the Bengals to take a non-QB.


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 Post subject: Re: Mock Draft 2.0
PostPosted: Fri Apr 09, 2021 7:14 am 
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The pick will be Pitts. Do the 2 TE scheme just like NE and Flores keeps the strategy of emulating Belichick and trying to be NE south.


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 Post subject: Re: Mock Draft 2.0
PostPosted: Fri Apr 09, 2021 8:07 am 
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shularino wrote:
Atlanta should trade out........they need defensive help and they don't need the 4th pick to get a premier defensive player. Good news for the Phins to have the first 4 picks go QB. That only leaves the Bengals to take a non-QB.


This is Tony Pauline's thoughts on the Falcons trading out. In my opinion there will have to be some great compensation in the 2022 draft, but whomever does trade, chances are that it will not be a top 10 pick next year.

Tony Pauline (PFN) wrote:
The trade of Sam Darnold to the Panthers puts the Falcons in a tough spot. Any trade now would likely be outside the top 12, unless it’s with Denver. That means the Falcons would lose out on one of the draft’s premier players. (We spoke about this at length during Wednesday night’s episode of The Draft Insiders podcast).

The new regime will have to decide — do they want a premier player at the top of this year’s draft or a haul of future picks?


https://www.profootballnetwork.com/nfl- ... no-4-pick/

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 Post subject: Re: Mock Draft 2.0
PostPosted: Fri Apr 09, 2021 9:03 am 
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I think the NFL has been extremely high on Pitts for a while and the media has come around to it the last couple of months.

One thing I fear is a team like Carolina making a move up to 4 to get Pitts for Darnold.


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 Post subject: Re: Mock Draft 2.0
PostPosted: Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:08 am 
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jammer wrote:
I think the NFL has been extremely high on Pitts for a while and the media has come around to it the last couple of months.

One thing I fear is a team like Carolina making a move up to 4 to get Pitts for Darnold.

I don’t think they will do that after giving up picks to get Darnold. They can stay where they are at and still land a talented receiver or some offensive line help.


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