All times are UTC-04:00


Phinfever Home Page

Phinfever Chatroom

Phinfever FAQ




Reply to topic  [ 9 posts ] 
Author Message
 Post subject: With 3 weeks left
PostPosted: Tue Dec 15, 2020 2:03 pm 
Offline
User avatar
Phinfever Hall of Famer
Phinfever Hall of Famer

Joined: Sat Jan 12, 2013 11:50 am
Posts: 959
With only a few weeks left in the season, I figured now was as good a time as any to spend way too much time on the NFL Playoff Machine. Though little time remains, there are still some unlikely, yet nonetheless fascinating finishes that could happen. Below is a little bit of what I determined, as well as some comments and opinions.


At the conclusion of week 14:

Miami currently has control over its own destiny. If the team goes 3-0 (finishing 11-5), based on the current tiebreaker scenarios, they are in - whether it be via the wildcard or because Buffalo choked. The 10-win-and-in train took a pretty major blow this week, but one loss didn't necessarily ruin all hopes. Should Miami fail to win out, it will become up to other teams to lose.

The division:

Is definitely still in play. Buffalo still has to win games, and there are still possible scenarios where they don't even make the playoffs. There are also scenarios where they become the 2 seed in the entire AFC. That being said, for Miami to win the division, it's a no brainer: Buffalo would need to lose all 3 and Miami win all 3. Even if the Phins win week 17, Buffalo still has the tiebreaker should the records be the same.


The wildcard:

As of now, Miami is the 7 seed, followed by the Colts (6) and the Browns (5). These are the teams in the mix for the wildcards (in no specific order):


Colts (9-4): Texans, @Steelers, Jaguars - Miami has tiebreaker

OR

Titans (9-4): Lions, @Packers, Texans - Titans have tiebreaker


Browns (9-4): @Giants, @Jets, Steelers - Miami has tiebreaker


Ravens (8-5): Jaguars, Giants, @Bengals - (as of today) Miami has tiebreaker

*Edit: I previously stated the Ravens had the tiebreaker, but Miami currently has 1 less AFC loss than the Ravens.

New England (6-7) and Vegas (7-6) aren't eliminated based on the math, but since Miami has to play both, I figured I could update those teams as needed.


Two immediate concerns are that no teams ahead of Miami have to play each other, and 50% of the games include the Jaguars, Texans, Bengals, and Jets. Not exactly relieving to see. Miami should be rooting for Tennessee to win the AFC South, and for either the Colts and Browns (or both) to finish with 10 wins. If either team does, Miami can realistically get in with a 10-6 record.

Based on the Colts' schedule, I find it hard to imagine them finishing with less than 11 wins. But I've seen crazier - can't forget the lone Jaguars win this year (week 1) came against the Colts, which funny enough is having a pretty big impact on this playoff race.


All in all, if Miami doesn't go 3-0, it may very well come down to how badly the Giants want to win a division or how badly the Steelers want a better seed in the playoffs. But Miami is going to win out and make this all moot anyways, right?


If you noticed something I didn't, or have any thoughts/concerns, feel free to comment. Should be a wild finish to an already chaotic season. Hoping for the best.

Phins up.


Last edited by DanRambo on Sun Dec 20, 2020 6:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Top
   
 Post subject: Re: With 3 weeks left
PostPosted: Tue Dec 15, 2020 6:41 pm 
Offline
Phinfever Blog Writer - Wednesdays
Phinfever Blog Writer - Wednesdays

Joined: Thu Jan 14, 2010 11:34 am
Posts: 3731
Thanks Rambo, that's pretty concise.


Top
   
 Post subject: Re: With 3 weeks left
PostPosted: Tue Dec 15, 2020 8:23 pm 
Offline
User avatar
Phinfever Legend
Phinfever Legend

Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2012 12:26 pm
Posts: 6880
Location: Delray Beach, Florida
DanRambo wrote:
Miami currently has control over its own destiny.


Image

_________________
Image


Top
   
 Post subject: Re: With 3 weeks left
PostPosted: Tue Dec 15, 2020 11:08 pm 
Offline
User avatar
Phinfever Global Moderator
Phinfever Global Moderator

Joined: Tue Jan 12, 2010 10:15 am
Posts: 7253
Location: El Paso, TX.
The Denver game haunts us.

_________________
RIP Tom
RIP Tone


Top
   
 Post subject: Re: With 3 weeks left
PostPosted: Wed Dec 16, 2020 12:54 pm 
Offline
User avatar
Phinfever Hall of Famer
Phinfever Hall of Famer

Joined: Sat Jan 12, 2013 11:50 am
Posts: 959
Thanks fellas. I wasn't sure how much to put. I didn't want to overwhelm with info but also wanted to make the post worthwhile.


AFCMiamiEast wrote:
DanRambo wrote:
Miami currently has control over its own destiny.


Image


Lol


Top
   
 Post subject: Re: With 3 weeks left
PostPosted: Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:04 pm 
Offline
User avatar
Phinfever Legend
Phinfever Legend

Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2012 12:26 pm
Posts: 6880
Location: Delray Beach, Florida
Miami is last in almost every team category that involves moving the ball out of every potential playoff team. I’m not anywhere near the biggest stat lover kinda guy but that does feel a little ominous.

I can’t break the feeling that without a little magic from the defense & ST, this team is a certain 1st round exit if they get in. I know that’s not bold but consider it a reality check.

_________________
Image


Top
   
 Post subject: Re: With 3 weeks left
PostPosted: Fri Dec 18, 2020 1:45 am 
Offline
User avatar
Phinfever Ring of Honor
Phinfever Ring of Honor

Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2010 1:43 pm
Posts: 1235
Well the Raiders screwing the pooch helps a little

_________________
Miami Dolphins, Fist Pump Like Champions!!
Image


Top
   
PostPosted: Fri Dec 18, 2020 7:34 am 
Offline
Phinfever Blog Writer - Wednesdays
Phinfever Blog Writer - Wednesdays

Joined: Thu Jan 14, 2010 11:34 am
Posts: 3731
AFCMiamiEast wrote:
Miami is last in almost every team category that involves moving the ball out of every potential playoff team. I’m not anywhere near the biggest stat lover kinda guy but that does feel a little ominous.

I can’t break the feeling that without a little magic from the defense & ST, this team is a certain 1st round exit if they get in. I know that’s not bold but consider it a reality check.
I agree, but one point I read/heard recently was that part of why the offensive stats look so bad is because the defense and st so often give them a short field. There is an element of truth to that.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk


Top
   
 Post subject: Re: With 3 weeks left
PostPosted: Fri Dec 18, 2020 8:26 am 
Offline
User avatar
Phinfever Legend
Phinfever Legend

Joined: Sat Feb 27, 2010 6:49 pm
Posts: 2299
Location: Charlotte, NC
Steelers look lost........we can beat them, and that may very well be the 1st Rd match up if the Phins get in.


Top
   
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Reply to topic  [ 9 posts ] 

All times are UTC-04:00


Phinfever Home Page

Phinfever Chatroom

Phinfever FAQ


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 68 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
cron
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Limited | Chopped and modified by Coots | Original design by Prosk8r