Phinfever NFL Mock Draft 1.0
Written by Tony Simmons   
Thursday, 28 March 2013

We are now a little over a month away from the 2013 NFL Draft and teams are making their plans for the draft as they continue to fill holes with free agency. 

We still have Pro Days for schools going on and teams are bringing in kids to work them out individually and talk with the kids.

With that said, let see if we can put together a half way decent mock draft for the NFL.

1) Kansas City - Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A & M - The consensus seems to be that Andy Reid will take an offensive lineman, but there is still a lot of uncertainty to were he will play.  OLT Branden Albert had the franchise tag put on him, but there is a lot of talk of him being traded.  I have seen Eric Fisher, the OLT from Central Michigan mocked here as well.  Fisher may be a little more talented, but Joeckel has been battle tested and is a little more polished.

2) Jacksonville - Dion Jordan, OLB/DE, Oregon - The Jaguars need a lot of things, but addressing their pass rush is high on the list of things needed.  QB Blaine Gabbert has really struggled and QB could be a possiblity as well.

3) Oakland - Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida - Another team that needs a lot of help, they will probably lose DT Richard Seymour and they just cut DT Tommy Kelly.  Floyd can be that impact DT that can be a force against the run and provide interior push in regards to pass rush.

4) Philadelphia - Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan - The Eagles offensive line is a mess, and OLT Jason Peters is recovering from two ruptured achilles tendon.  Fisher makes a lot of sense here, and also look for Dion Jordan is he slips past Jacksonville.

5) Detroit - Enzekial Ansah, DE, Brigham Young - Detroit lost both starting defensive ends and GM Martin Mayhew has shown a propensity for drafting talented DL personnel.  Ansah is raw, but is a physical freak and his upside is very high. Dee Milline, the CB from Alabama is a possiblity here as well.

6) Cleveland -  Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama - The Browns look to team Milliner up with CB Joe Hayden to form a very talented cornerback duo. 

7) Arizona - Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma - The Cardinals offensive line has been very bad for a long time, and they are in need of a OLT.  Johnson is a very athletic OLT and his stock has taken off since the Senior Bowl and Combine.  QB Geno Smith could come in play here as well.

8) Buffalo - Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia - Buffalo release starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tyler Thigpen and Tavares Jackson are the only QB on the roster at this moment.

9) New York Jets - Barkevious Mingo, OLB/DE, LSU - The Jets are a hot mess right now, but they need to look at generating more pass pressure on the quarterback.  Rex Ryan is and always will be a defensive minded coach and has fell in love with Mingo.  

10) Tennessee - Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina - The Titans just lost Steve Hutchinson,and Cooper is considered a rare talent at OG, better than Alabama OG Chance Warmack in some folks eyes.

11) San Diego - Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama - The Chargers would snatch OT Lane Johnson in a heartbeat if he dropped to them.  Mike Mayock considers Warmack to be the best football player in this draft.

12) Miami - Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia - Miami has rebuilt their WR corps for the most part with the signing of Mike Wallace and Brandon Gibson and re-signing Brian Hartline.  Davone Bess is going into his final year of his contract  and there is talk of possibly trading Bess.  With that being said, you need to be able to score points and have multiple weapons.  Austin is the most expolsive player in this draft and gives QB Ryan Tannehill one more lethal weapon to work with.  Other possiblities are CB Xavier Rhodes of Florida State, CB Desmond Trufant of Washington, DE Bjoern Werner of Florida State.

13) Tampa Bay - Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State - Tampa Bay needs cornerbacks and are looking to possibly trade for Darrelle Revis.  Even if they do pull the trade off, they still need another cornerback.

14) Carolina - Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah - The Panthers help fortify their run defense with the talented big man from Utah.  He possibly drops to this point due to physical concerns, aka heart issues.

15) New Orleans - Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU - New Orleans had the worst defense in the NFL last year, and they need help everywhere.  Let start with a local product that can provide pass rush pressure.

16) St.Louis - Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee - The Rams look to repalce WR Danny Amendola and Brandon Gibson.  Patterson is a physical talent, but very raw.

17) Pittsburgh - Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington - The Steelers have a lot of holes to fill, one of them being CB after losing CB Keenan Lewis to New Orleans.  Trufant helps fill that void.

18) Dallas - Kenny Vacarro, S, Texas - Dallas released starting safety Gerald Sensabaugh during the offseason, and this gives the Cowboys a chance to add a talented local talent at a positon of need in their new 4-3 scheme run by new DC Monte Kiffin.

19) New York Giants - Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State - GM Jerry Reese believes in the DL and having an abundance of pass rusher.  Now that Osi Umenyiora has signed with the Atlanta Falcosn, the Giants replinish the pass rush.

20) Chicago - Manti Te'o, ILB, Notre Dame - The Bears have a hole in the middle of their defense with the exodus of  MLB Brian Urlacher.  Te'o is a smart, tough football player.

21) Cincinnati -  Alec Ogletree, OLB, Georgia -  Ogletree is very talented, but he has had several off the field incidents.  Teams will do there homework before pulling the trigger on this young man.  The Bengals are a team that don't mind taking chance on kids with character issues.

22) St.Louis - Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama - The Rams lost Stephen Jackson to the Atlanta Falcons, and Lacy helps to fill that void for the Rams.

23) Minnesota - Keenan Allen, WR, California - The Vikings signed Green Bay WR Greg Jennings after trading Percy Harvin, and also re-signed WR Jerome Simpson.  Still, the Vikings could use another weapon for QB Christian Ponder, and Allen can help.

24) Indianapolis - Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri - The Colts look to bolster their defensive line with the talented big man from Missouri.

25) Minnesota - Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina -  The Vikings bolster their defensive line with the big DT from ACC Country.

26) Green Bay - Matt Elam, S, Florida - The Packers add a physical prescence in the secondary with FS Elam.

27) Houston - DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson - The Texans desperately need to add another solid WR opposite Andre Johnson.  Hopkins fits that mode.

28) Denver - Damontre Moore, DE/OLB, Texas A & M - Due to a bungling snafu with a fax machine, the Broncos lost a very good pass rusher in DE Elvis Dumervil to Baltimore.  Moore started the process as a top 10 pick, but a horrid combine along with some off the field issues push him to this point in the draft and to the Broncos.

29) New England - Johnthan Banks, CB, Mississippi State - Aqib Talib signed just a one year contract and Ras-I Downling has had a difficult time staying on the field.

30) Atlanta - Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame - Tony Gonzalez came back for one more year to make a run at a championship.  Yes, I know it was a 2 year deal, but most expect Tony to play only one more year.  Tyler helps soften the blow when Tony leaves.

31) San Francisco - Jesse Williams, NT, Alabama - FS could be the pick here as well, but the 49ers lost NT Issac Sopoaga to free agency.  Williams was a rock in the middle of the Crimson Tide 3-4 defense, and can be the same for the 49ers.

32) Baltimore - Kevin Minter, ILB, LSU - The Ravens have taken some major shots in free agency, but GM Ozzie Newsome is one of the best GM out there.  Once Elvis Dumervil became a free agent, the Ravens made him a priority and got him signed.  So while that addresses the hole left from Paul Kruger leaving for Cleveland, many holes still remain.  Minter can help fill the void at MLB after Darnelle Ellerbe, expected to fill the void for the Ravens was signed by Miami.

 

I will put one final NFL Mock Draft out the week before the NFL Draft.  I'm quite sure there will be some changes between now and then.

 

 

 

 
Mike Wallace - One Trick Pony?
Written by Rich Rodriguez   
Wednesday, 27 March 2013

 Much has been made about Mike Wallace being a one trick pony, but many of his receptions are of the short or intermediate variety.

Wallace's numbers diminished from 2011 to 2012. This is mostly attributed to Todd Haley's system forcing Wallace to run shorter, quicker routes so Ben Roethlisberger could get rid of the ball quicker to avoid being hit.

In 2011, he had 75 receptions for 1219 yards, 16.3 yards per reception and 8 touchdowns.

In 2012, he had 64 receptions for 838 yards, 13.1 yards per reception and 8 touchdowns.

First, let's look at Wallace's receptions by direction for 2011 courtesy of Pro Football Focus.

 

Wallace actually did a good bit of damage on short throws, catching 49 of his 75 receptions on throws of 9 yards or shorter. Two of his eight touchdowns were on short throws and he gained 514 yards on short passes. Wallace was targetted 65 times on short throws, catching 75.4% of short passes he was targetted on. He only dropped one short pass.

On throws of 10-19 yards, what we would call intermediate throws, Wallace had 16 receptions for 227 yards and 1 TD. He dropped 2 passes. He was targetted 30 times, catching only 53% of the intermediate passes he was targetted on.

On deep throws, Wallace had 10 catches for 478 yards and 5 TDs, dropping two deep passes down the middle. He was targetted 27 times and caught 37% of deep passes.

Fast forward to 2012.

 

On short throws, Wallace caught 43 passes for 367 yards and 2 TDs. Wallace was targetted 54 times on short throws. He caught 80% if them, actually appearing to improve in the short game.

On intermediate throws, Wallace caught 15 passes for 208 yards and 2 TDs. He was targetted 31 times, catching 48.4% of intermediate passes.

On deep throws, he had 6 catches for 263 yards and 4 TDs. He was targetted 31 times on deep throws, more than 2012, but only caught 19.4% of these.

One thing to note here is that Wallace did not catch any of the 8 deep targets he got down the left sideline.

Based on these numbers, it actually appears as if the Steelers targetted Wallace just as much on deep and intermediate throws in 2012, he simply just caught less of them. It also appears as if Wallace did more of his damage down the middle of the field than one would think. Wallace had 34 catches for 420 yards and 3 touchdowns down the middle of the field.

It will be interesting to see how the Dolphins use Wallace. Certainly he'll run some go routes and double moves, as well as posts to attack the deep secondary. But don't be surprised if they also try to hit him on some quick passes when the corner is playing off and ask him to use his speed and quickness to gain some yards after the catch.

Speaking of YAC, in 2011 Wallace had 505 yards after the catch. In 2012, he only had 279.

It may have still been the system that caused Wallace's diminished production, but they seemed to target him just as much as go deep to him just as much in 2012 as they did in 2011.

He simply didn't produce as much.

Let's hope we got the Mike Wallace of 2011.

 

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