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PostPosted: Wed Sep 18, 2013 8:49 am 
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Expect another quarterback dual.

The Falcons have 124 rushing yards on the season. The Dolphins have 121.

Atlanta has allowed 147 rushing yards in two games. Miami has allowed 180.

So both run defenses seem to be off to a good start.

Let's look at the pass defenses.

Atlanta has allowed almost 700 yards passing in two games, along with 5 TDs. They've intercepted two passes and sacked QBs twice. They are allowing a QB rating of 97.9.

Not very impressive.

Miami has allowed 559 yards passing, which is not terrific, but they've allowed 2 touchdowns, intercepted 4 passes, sacked the QB 9 times and are allowing a QB rating of 62.4.

Granted a lot of those statistics came against Brandon Weeden, but they also had a lot of success against Andrew Luck in the 2nd half of the Indy game.

One other critical stat to look at is 3rd downs. Miami has allowed only 8 out of 29 third down conversions. Atlanta has allowed 13 of 30.

When looking at pass offenses, obviously the key to the Atlanta offense is Matt Ryan. The Falcons have 636 passing yards, along with 4 TDs and 1 pick. They've allowed 5 sacks. Ryan has a QB rating of 107.9.

Miami's pass offense has 552 yards passing, 2 TDs and 1 INT. They've allowed 9 sacks. Ryan Tannehill has a 94.2 QB rating.

When converting third downs, the Dolphins have converted 14 of 30, the Falcons 10 of 24.

The bottom line is that Miami, a relatively effective pass offense, will be going against a relatively ineffective pass defense, missing some of it's key players, while Atlanta, a very effective pass offense, will be facing off against a relatively effective pass defense.

One more thing to note. Atlanta has only allowed 5 sacks, but they've allowed 37 pressures.

Defense only has 2 sacks, but has gotten 31 pressures.

Meanwhile, while Miami has allowed 9 sacks, they've only allowed 21 pressures.

Defense has 9 sacks to go along with 51 pressures.

So while both offensive lines are shaky, Atlanta's seem shakier and Miami's defense can certainly bring the heat.

Given these early season trends, I predict that the running games will be a statemate. However, the Dolphins will have the advantage in getting to the QB and the defense will be able to disrupt the Falcons offense. They'll give up plays but they will make plays.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins will continue to do enough on offense to put points up on the board.

Prediction - Dolphins 28, Falcons 21

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 18, 2013 9:16 am 
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Atlanta on the road on grass....not good

Miami 27
Atlanta 24


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 18, 2013 9:22 am 
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Doesn't look like Soliai and Clemons are playing. That has me concerned.

I also worry about Ryan being able to put up quick points and putting Miami in a situation of catch up. However, in a weird way I'd like to see it so that Tannehill and the offense can prove they are capable of a comeback.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 18, 2013 9:54 am 
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Gotta pressure Ryan in this game because a DB can only cover Julio for so long. I hope the play calling for our offense stays creative, getting the ball to Wallace and Clay in space takes the pressure off Tanny & our O-line. It would be nice to see Lamar break out a bit more too.

One note I'd like to add, when SJax went down Jacquizz Rodgers & Jason Snelling had 8 catches for 69 yards. They could be a difficult variable for our Defense.

I'm saying Phins 23 - Falcons 20 but mostly because I just read Rich's facts about 3rd downs. It could go the other way if the trends break

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 18, 2013 10:21 am 
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Not too worried about Soliai not playing. If Clemons can't go, that's huge.

You really have no replacement for him. Jimmy Wilson would be the guy to step in, but he's also needed at CB with the injuries to Patterson/Davis/Taylor.

My head tells me Matt Ryan will do enough to beat Tannehill, my gut tells me Miami edges them out with a last second Sturgis FG.

27-24 Miami.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 18, 2013 10:28 am 
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Phins Rock wrote:
Not too worried about Soliai not playing. If Clemons can't go, that's huge.

You really have no replacement for him. Jimmy Wilson would be the guy to step in, but he's also needed at CB with the injuries to Patterson/Davis/Taylor.

My head tells me Matt Ryan will do enough to beat Tannehill, my gut tells me Miami edges them out with a last second Sturgis FG.

27-24 Miami.


I'm actually shocked at your prediction. Figured your guy Matty would have you thinking 30+ points for the Falcons.

I think Ryan has to jump out early to get the Falcons a win. Miami's defense has done a very nice job in 2nd half adjustments.

And I agree with your score prediction.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 18, 2013 10:31 am 
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jammer wrote:
Phins Rock wrote:
Not too worried about Soliai not playing. If Clemons can't go, that's huge.

You really have no replacement for him. Jimmy Wilson would be the guy to step in, but he's also needed at CB with the injuries to Patterson/Davis/Taylor.

My head tells me Matt Ryan will do enough to beat Tannehill, my gut tells me Miami edges them out with a last second Sturgis FG.

27-24 Miami.


I'm actually shocked at your prediction. Figured your guy Matty would have you thinking 30+ points for the Falcons.

I think Ryan has to jump out early to get the Falcons a win. Miami's defense has done a very nice job in 2nd half adjustments.

And I agree with your score prediction.


If he had a full cast of receivers and Miami's D wasn't playing so well, I might.

But Miami will put pressure on him all day from the edges. I think Wake has a ridiculously productive game coming off his worst in years.

Ryan will get his, but he won't have much help from the run game or protection to put up a ton of points.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 18, 2013 12:11 pm 
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Atlanta has allowed almost 700 yards passing in two games, along with 5 TDs. They've intercepted two passes and sacked QBs twice. They are allowing a QB rating of 97.9.

Luck is more ice than Matty..sorry PR. Matt gets rattled, check the stats.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 18, 2013 12:18 pm 
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ATL scores 1st, MIA D steps up with a pick 6 and they never look back. MIA run game eats the clock as a Humid driven heat tires out the Falcons. 35-17, MIA rolls in the 3rd and 4th.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 18, 2013 12:53 pm 
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NOT DA FALCONS!

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 18, 2013 1:05 pm 
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I still think that Tannehill can do a better job at avoiding some of these sacks. He needs to break contain and extend some of these plays. He has the speed to do it, he just doesn't.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 18, 2013 1:17 pm 
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swerve13 wrote:
I still think that Tannehill can do a better job at avoiding some of these sacks. He needs to break contain and extend some of these plays. He has the speed to do it, he just doesn't.



I think it is done by design. Towards the end of last season they let him do more, and dialed up different plays that had him in motion.

We have not had any of those plays yet, I think I saw one roll out to the right and a screen pass but otherwise he is staying in the pocket..

It does avoind holding calls on the line, figure he runs and gains 3, then its called back -5 for a hold. May as well stand still and take a -3 loss...
Thats just my theory tho so dont read too much into it.. haha

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 18, 2013 2:17 pm 
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Phins Rock wrote:
Not too worried about Soliai not playing. If Clemons can't go, that's huge.

You really have no replacement for him. Jimmy Wilson would be the guy to step in, but he's also needed at CB with the injuries to Patterson/Davis/Taylor.

My head tells me Matt Ryan will do enough to beat Tannehill, my gut tells me Miami edges them out with a last second Sturgis FG.

27-24 Miami.


I'm with you JP. Caleb "IceVeins" Sturgis with a last second field goal.
Miami 27 Atlanta 24

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 18, 2013 2:19 pm 
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With Roddy hobbled and SJax out, there are 2 guys I am worried about. I think that we will roll a safety over to try to take away Julio, leaving the middle open for Tony Gonzalez to shred us. We haven't demonstrated the ability to cover a good TE yet. The other guy I worry about is Jaquizz Rodgers. His speed could make him a factor with turning screens or check-downs into big gains.

Still, on our home turf.... IF our pass rush is effective then Miami 31 Atlanta 27.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 18, 2013 2:37 pm 
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Phins Rock wrote:
If Clemons can't go, that's huge.


He currently grades out as the top pass coverage safety in the NFL according to PFF.

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 18, 2013 2:48 pm 
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Rich wrote:
Phins Rock wrote:
If Clemons can't go, that's huge.


He currently grades out as the top pass coverage safety in the NFL according to PFF.


Wow. That's a bit of a surprise. Not that I thought he was doing badly, just didn't know he was doing THAT well.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 18, 2013 2:58 pm 
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He graded out 25th overall last season (includes free and strong safeties) and 4th overall in pass coverage. The problem is he doesn't intercept a lot of passes so he doesn't get the attention. But he's been excellent in pass coverage.

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 18, 2013 7:44 pm 
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Jimmy Wilson......ouch.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 18, 2013 7:55 pm 
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Quote:
Atlanta Falcons: In 2012 Matt Ryan completed 69.1% of his play action passes, which was the sixth in the league. So far in 2013, Ryan has increased that to 89.5%, currently the league’s best.


https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2 ... -week-2-2/


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 18, 2013 8:14 pm 
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Hopefuly, we won't bite since we are going against Snelling and Rogers.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 18, 2013 9:29 pm 
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Rich wrote:
Prediction - Dolphins 28, Falcons 21


I can't fault the logic, but the memory of Miami's recent home openers sting.

2009 against the Colts
2010 against the Jets
2011 against the Pats.

All were big games that were going to show that Miami was back.

2013 against the Falcons is the next one.

Screw it, history has to change.

Miami 28, Atl 24.

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 18, 2013 10:53 pm 
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Dolphins 34
Falcons 13

The OL shows up to play this week. The offense clicks and spends most of the day on the field giving the defense an easy time.

This is the week the Dolphins show they have arrived!


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 19, 2013 7:03 am 
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AQNOR wrote:
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Atlanta Falcons: In 2012 Matt Ryan completed 69.1% of his play action passes, which was the sixth in the league. So far in 2013, Ryan has increased that to 89.5%, currently the league’s best.


https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2 ... -week-2-2/


The one good thing is that it is a little harder to sell play action without their top RB! I just hope Tannehill is healthy for us.


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 19, 2013 4:27 pm 
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31-28 Phins


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 19, 2013 11:08 pm 
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I watched the Atlanta Game and their quick passing game is stellar. If they get the safeties stepping up they'll bang Julio deep. I can see Miamis defense doing a lot of bending on Sunday. I would pick a few spots but wouldn't blitz Ryan that much. As a matter of fact I might start a nickel defense because they struggle running the football.


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 21, 2013 3:45 am 
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Lol really...? Everyone is predicting Miami to win? Atlanta is taking this one, sorry guys. I don't like the loss of Patterson and Solia.

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PostPosted: Sat Sep 21, 2013 11:32 am 
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Dolphins 17
Atlanta 9

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PostPosted: Sat Sep 21, 2013 11:41 am 
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This game absolutely scares the hell out of me. TE's kill us...so I see Gonzales having a career day before he retires at the end of the year. I'm trying NOT to get greedy and keep to my preseason saying that if we can get to the bye at 2-3 or 3-2, we had a chance. Now i'm simply greedy...and if we're gonna be successful and indeed have become relevant again, we have to take care of our home field.

So the superstitious one in my will have my same shorts and shirt on from the first two weeks. My wife is yelling at me because I won't allow her to wash them :)

Good guys 27
Falcons 24


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 21, 2013 12:24 pm 
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Vegas now has the Phins favored by 3. Phins keep Atl out of th endzone most of the day and pull away in the 4th. Phins 27 Atl 16.


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 21, 2013 3:59 pm 
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AFCMiamiEast wrote:
Lol really...? Everyone is predicting Miami to win? Atlanta is taking this one, sorry guys. I don't like the loss of Patterson and Solia.


This is a fan forum, of course everyone is picking Miami. That's why I've abstained from making a pick

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PostPosted: Sat Sep 21, 2013 7:57 pm 
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AFCMiamiEast wrote:
Lol really...? Everyone is predicting Miami to win? Atlanta is taking this one, sorry guys. I don't like the loss of Patterson and Solia.


Atlanta is missing several key players, and a few others who will probably play are still banged up.

On paper and without injuries this game should be a blowout or at the very least a 10 point victory for Atlanta. But now you have several other factors. Miami has an edge and they MUST capitalize.

If Miami wins, and when Vegas goes that way it has legit potential, I wouldn't jump up and down proclaiming they can beat anyone. Its kind of like when they beat a weakened Green Bay in 2010.


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 22, 2013 8:33 am 
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Miami needs Wallace healthy enough to play and tie up Falcon DB's. If he does.
Miami 24
Atlanta 20

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 22, 2013 6:20 pm 
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AFCMiamiEast wrote:
Lol really...? Everyone is predicting Miami to win? Atlanta is taking this one, sorry guys. I don't like the loss of Patterson and Solia.


Yeah....

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 22, 2013 6:22 pm 
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This is a fan forum, of course everyone is picking Miami. That's why I've abstained from making a pick


yeah....


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 22, 2013 6:57 pm 
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The majority of us predicted 27-24.....Close enough.


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 22, 2013 7:05 pm 
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Rich wrote:
AFCMiamiEast wrote:
Lol really...? Everyone is predicting Miami to win? Atlanta is taking this one, sorry guys. I don't like the loss of Patterson and Solia.


Yeah....


I'll eat crow lol, go 'Fins 3-0 sounds good.

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 22, 2013 7:06 pm 
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I retract my statement from earlier. Miami played banged up and sans some key players and still took down a good team. These guys can compete!


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