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 Dustin Keller loss won't sink Dolphins, Greg Cosell says 
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Post Dustin Keller loss won't sink Dolphins, Greg Cosell says
Quote:
By Marc Sessler
Around the League Writer
Published: Aug. 24, 2013 at 02:48 p.m.
Updated: Aug. 24, 2013 at 04:08 p.m

...

The NFL Films senior producer cites one simple reason for optimism: second-year quarterback Ryan Tannehill.

"After watching (Dolphins) tape, believe it or not, I don't think (Keller's) as big a loss as we would have thought," Cosell said on Thursday's FantasyGuru.com podcast. "I was really impressed with Tannehill's development. ... Maybe there's not one player who would put up the specific numbers we thought Keller would, but I don't think this short-circuits their pass game because of Tannehill's development. So I still think they'll have a very solid pass game."

Tannehill landed No. 1 on our Making the Leap series because his steady growth over the course of last season suggests a passer with the requisite skills to shine at the NFL level. ...

If Tannehill's development continues upward, losing Keller -- as rough as it might seem on paper -- won't stop the Dolphins from a productive passing game. Big-time quarterback play covers many sins.


http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap100000 ... osell-says


Sat Aug 24, 2013 3:48 pm
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Post Re: Dustin Keller loss won't sink Dolphins, Greg Cosell says
I think it's a huge loss. The biggest problem last year was that the field was very small for Tannehill. Having Wallace's speed outside opens it up, and Keller was an upper tier middle of the field target to take advantage of that.

At best you have mediocrity there now....At a position that's a premium in the NFL and definitely Sherman's offense.


Sat Aug 24, 2013 3:51 pm
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Post Re: Dustin Keller loss won't sink Dolphins, Greg Cosell says
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Big-time quarterback play covers many sins


Mak is that you? LOL


Sat Aug 24, 2013 4:33 pm
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Post Re: Dustin Keller loss won't sink Dolphins, Greg Cosell says
Judging by tonights game Keller will be missed. Tanny recognized Gibson getting open against the Bucs D but he wasn't exactly that big strong endzone target thats needed. Theres no good reason for us not to score from First and Goal in the first qtr.

Sims is 6'5" and has a 35" vertical. I hope the coaches plan to draw up some jump balls this year

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Sat Aug 24, 2013 10:35 pm
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Post Re: Dustin Keller loss won't sink Dolphins, Greg Cosell says
Phins Rock wrote:
I think it's a huge loss. The biggest problem last year was that the field was very small for Tannehill. Having Wallace's speed outside opens it up, and Keller was an upper tier middle of the field target to take advantage of that.

At best you have mediocrity there now....At a position that's a premium in the NFL and definitely Sherman's offense.


I agree with you Phins Rock. With Keller in the line up Miami had 4 legitimate pass catchers going into the pre-season. It created mismatches somewhere on the field. And it would have helped the running game. Keller had the ability to create separation in the "seam". None of the remaining TE's on the roster now can do that consistently. It will be easier to double cover Wallace and make Tanehill beat you by passing to Hartline and Gibson.

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Post Re: Dustin Keller loss won't sink Dolphins, Greg Cosell says
Steve Zissou wrote:
Judging by tonights game Keller will be missed. Tanny recognized Gibson getting open against the Bucs D but he wasn't exactly that big strong endzone target thats needed. Theres no good reason for us not to score from First and Goal in the first qtr.

Sims is 6'5" and has a 35" vertical. I hope the coaches plan to draw up some jump balls this year


I agree, Steve. I think we're going to miss 'what's his name' from last year since we lost Keller. Clay is not stepping up, and I really don't think he can. We may as well throw Sims into the fire and develop him. Move Clay to FB.

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Post Re: Dustin Keller loss won't sink Dolphins, Greg Cosell says
I know Preseason performance is not a reflection of the regular season performance. The offense has to get better or it will be a long season again.


Sun Aug 25, 2013 9:42 am
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Post Re: Dustin Keller loss won't sink Dolphins, Greg Cosell says
Clay is not stepping up, and I really don't think he can. We may as well throw Sims into the fire and develop him. Move Clay to FB.

You are right Dave and I posted on another topic thread that I am now not going to be upset if Charles Clay just gets cut now. Why waste a roster spot for someone that clearly is inconsistent for the Dolphins and really has been since day one.

Keeping on the roster as a fullback, IMO I would rather keep Rodriguez than Clay. At least when Rodriguez is in he looks nimble, actually fits the look of a tight end/H-Back more so than Clay and guess what, he catches the ball too!

If Charles Clay gets cut tomorrow, I say no when else picks him up. What has he shown? Hope the coaches move on from him. Sims is a nice young big target, hopefully he progresses. Outside of the club, I wouldn't be opposed to the idea of trading a very late round pick for Gresham of Cincinnati (if he was to be traded)


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Post Re: Dustin Keller loss won't sink Dolphins, Greg Cosell says
Finhead34 wrote:
Clay is not stepping up, and I really don't think he can. We may as well throw Sims into the fire and develop him. Move Clay to FB.

You are right Dave and I posted on another topic thread that I am now not going to be upset if Charles Clay just gets cut now. Why waste a roster spot for someone that clearly is inconsistent for the Dolphins and really has been since day one.

Keeping on the roster as a fullback, IMO I would rather keep Rodriguez than Clay. At least when Rodriguez is in he looks nimble, actually fits the look of a tight end/H-Back more so than Clay and guess what, he catches the ball too!

If Charles Clay gets cut tomorrow, I say no when else picks him up. What has he shown? Hope the coaches move on from him. Sims is a nice young big target, hopefully he progresses. Outside of the club, I wouldn't be opposed to the idea of trading a very late round pick for Gresham of Cincinnati (if he was to be traded)


Thats hard to admit but you're probably right. I like Clay and think he could be dangerous but he hasn't earned much. Idk about Rodriguez or Lane still but Clay isn't a good FB. I think we have to keep him though because our TE position becomes a sieve without him

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Post Re: Dustin Keller loss won't sink Dolphins, Greg Cosell says
Rodriguez looked like more of a playmaker than Clay last night as a FB.

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Post Re: Dustin Keller loss won't sink Dolphins, Greg Cosell says
Rich wrote:
Rodriguez looked like more of a playmaker than Clay last night as a FB.


Clay was atrocious.

Honestly, and I've become hesitant to say this about athletes, but he seems to be cruising at this point, knowing he's the only option at TE.


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Post Re: Dustin Keller loss won't sink Dolphins, Greg Cosell says
Finhead34 wrote:
I wouldn't be opposed to the idea of trading a very late round pick for Gresham of Cincinnati (if he was to be traded)

I would say Cincy would be opposed to trading him for a very late rd pick.


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Post Re: Dustin Keller loss won't sink Dolphins, Greg Cosell says
Rich wrote:
Rodriguez looked like more of a playmaker than Clay last night as a FB.


Rodriguez has looked great in every play he was targeted from what I have seen in his two biggest preseason games, it's an extremely small sample but I would definitely roll with him going into the season over Clay.

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Post Re: Dustin Keller loss won't sink Dolphins, Greg Cosell says
Mak is that you? LOL


No, but he's right. lol Clay dropped a TD last night, he sucks....


Sun Aug 25, 2013 2:02 pm
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Post Re: Dustin Keller loss won't sink Dolphins, Greg Cosell says
I was watching the NFL round about......did Egnew or Sims do anything?


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Post Re: Dustin Keller loss won't sink Dolphins, Greg Cosell says
shularino wrote:
I was watching the NFL round about......did Egnew or Sims do anything?


Sims had a couple solid blocks and a 18yard catch. To be honest tho, I was looking for him & not Egenew. So Im probably biased haha

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Post Re: Dustin Keller loss won't sink Dolphins, Greg Cosell says
Was browsing through Finheaven, and saw this thread.

Great research done.

Quote:
As it turns out, the median number of catches for starting tight ends is 46.5. So I split the group of tight ends in two, those with 46 or fewer catches, and those with 47 or more catches.

The teams with starting tight ends who have caught 46 or fewer passes have an average winning percentage of .379. They're winning a shade under 4 games out of every 10. This translates to about a 6-10 record on a season.

By contrast, the teams with starting tight ends who have caught 47 or more passes have an average winning percentage of .621. They're winning a shade greater than 6 games out of every 10. This translates to about a 10-6 record on a season.


http://www.finheaven.com/forums/showthr ... -Tight-End

Not to beat a dead horse, but to me TE by committee isn't good enough. It's nice to have multiple pieces that can do different jobs for you behind your #1 TE, but you need that one go-to guy on 3rd down, that one big match-up nightmare for defenses, that one guy that opens up the field and gives your QB a big security blanket, etc., and we don't have anything close to that.

I really think the loss of Keller could be a difference of multiple wins.

EDIT: This is actually from the 2011 season apparently, but the point still stands.


Mon Aug 26, 2013 8:11 am
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Post Re: Dustin Keller loss won't sink Dolphins, Greg Cosell says
The Jets had Keller......Detroit had Pettigrew..Graham Whitten...........


Mon Aug 26, 2013 8:36 am
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Post Re: Dustin Keller loss won't sink Dolphins, Greg Cosell says
Phins Rock wrote:
Was browsing through Finheaven, and saw this thread.

Great research done.

Quote:
As it turns out, the median number of catches for starting tight ends is 46.5. So I split the group of tight ends in two, those with 46 or fewer catches, and those with 47 or more catches.

The teams with starting tight ends who have caught 46 or fewer passes have an average winning percentage of .379. They're winning a shade under 4 games out of every 10. This translates to about a 6-10 record on a season.

By contrast, the teams with starting tight ends who have caught 47 or more passes have an average winning percentage of .621. They're winning a shade greater than 6 games out of every 10. This translates to about a 10-6 record on a season.


http://www.finheaven.com/forums/showthr ... -Tight-End

Not to beat a dead horse, but to me TE by committee isn't good enough. It's nice to have multiple pieces that can do different jobs for you behind your #1 TE, but you need that one go-to guy on 3rd down, that one big match-up nightmare for defenses, that one guy that opens up the field and gives your QB a big security blanket, etc., and we don't have anything close to that.

I really think the loss of Keller could be a difference of multiple wins.

EDIT: This is actually from the 2011 season apparently, but the point still stands.


Stats can be misleading.

How about a breakdown of teams with good QBs and tight ends with less than 47 catches and teams with good QBs and tight ends with more than 47 catches?

I bet a lot of those teams with tight ends that had more than 47 catches and a high winning percentage also had good QBs.

And I bet if you look at the teams with good QBs and tight ends catching less than 47 passes, they still had a high winning percentage.

That "research" is an example of not seeing the forest for the trees.

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Post Re: Dustin Keller loss won't sink Dolphins, Greg Cosell says
Rich wrote:
That "research" is an example of not seeing the forest for the trees.


To a certain extent.

It's still a decent sized sample and a pretty big difference between the 2 sides.

I think throughout this season on big 3rd downs, or in the redzone, over the middle, etc., we'll be saying "Keller would have made that play" when Clay didn't.

At several points this season Miami will be punting from the 45 instead of getting into FG range because Clay couldn't separate, or have to settle for a FG from inside the 10 instead of coming away with 6 because Egnew couldn't make the play in traffic Keller would. I really think we're talking about a difference of 3 points a game with Keller out.


Mon Aug 26, 2013 9:03 am
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Post Re: Dustin Keller loss won't sink Dolphins, Greg Cosell says
Phins Rock wrote:
To a certain extent.

It's still a decent sized sample and a pretty big difference between the 2 sides.

I think throughout this season on big 3rd downs, or in the redzone, over the middle, etc., we'll be saying "Keller would have made that play" when Clay didn't.

At several points this season Miami will be punting from the 45 instead of getting into FG range because Clay couldn't separate, or have to settle for a FG from inside the 10 instead of coming away with 6 because Egnew couldn't make the play in traffic Keller would. I really think we're talking about a difference of 3 points a game with Keller out.


.... And again, without a legitimate TE threat steering safeties away, teams strategically are going to sit on all the outside stuff and Wallace is going to be facing bracketing constantly. Not having Keller makes letting Reggie Bush go hurt more. He could've been the guy to soften that blow. I know that sounds ironic given how stubborn they were about utilizing him in the passing game.

The pressure is now squarely on the WR's shoulders.

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Post Re: Dustin Keller loss won't sink Dolphins, Greg Cosell says
Phins Rock wrote:
Rich wrote:
That "research" is an example of not seeing the forest for the trees.


To a certain extent.

It's still a decent sized sample and a pretty big difference between the 2 sides.

I think throughout this season on big 3rd downs, or in the redzone, over the middle, etc., we'll be saying "Keller would have made that play" when Clay didn't.

At several points this season Miami will be punting from the 45 instead of getting into FG range because Clay couldn't separate, or have to settle for a FG from inside the 10 instead of coming away with 6 because Egnew couldn't make the play in traffic Keller would. I really think we're talking about a difference of 3 points a game with Keller out.


Yes, but Keller is anecdotal and specific to the Dolphins.

Again, looking purely at how many catches a team's tight end has and correlating it to win-loss records without looking at the QB is an exercise in futility.

What was going on a few years ago when most teams were using tight ends primarily as blockers? Were they all losing?

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