Was browsing through Finheaven, and saw this thread.
Great research done.
As it turns out, the median number of catches for starting tight ends is 46.5. So I split the group of tight ends in two, those with 46 or fewer catches, and those with 47 or more catches.http://www.finheaven.com/forums/showthr ... -Tight-End
The teams with starting tight ends who have caught 46 or fewer passes have an average winning percentage of .379. They're winning a shade under 4 games out of every 10. This translates to about a 6-10 record on a season.
By contrast, the teams with starting tight ends who have caught 47 or more passes have an average winning percentage of .621. They're winning a shade greater than 6 games out of every 10. This translates to about a 10-6 record on a season.
Not to beat a dead horse, but to me TE by committee isn't good enough. It's nice to have multiple pieces that can do different jobs for you behind your #1 TE, but you need that one go-to guy on 3rd down, that one big match-up nightmare for defenses, that one guy that opens up the field and gives your QB a big security blanket, etc., and we don't have anything close to that.
I really think the loss of Keller could be a difference of multiple wins.
EDIT: This is actually from the 2011 season apparently, but the point still stands.
Stats can be misleading.
How about a breakdown of teams with good QBs and tight ends with less than 47 catches and teams with good QBs and tight ends with more than 47 catches?
I bet a lot of those teams with tight ends that had more than 47 catches and a high winning percentage also had good QBs.
And I bet if you look at the teams with good QBs and tight ends catching less than 47 passes, they still had a high winning percentage.
That "research" is an example of not seeing the forest for the trees.