Before you throw things at me through cyber-space, let me start by saying I think the Dolphins are a much-improved team on paper. Ireland did a masterful job in free agency of addressing needs and infusing the roster with youth and speed. I gave the draft a solid "B" grade, so it's not like I am preaching gloom and doom. Instead, this post is saying that IF we don't make the playoffs this year, it will likely be because of these factors.

1. Tannehill fails to develop as hoped. With all the shiny new toys on offense, it is expected by many fans that Ryan will grow quickly into the QB savior we have all been waiting for. But there is obviously no guarantee that will happen. If Tannehill turns in a similar season to last, (say, 60%, 3200 yards, 15 tds and 13 ints), that's not exactly franchise QB stuff. A mediocre season from our QB will severely lessen the chances of Miami seeing the post-season.

2. Offensive line woes With the signing of Tyson Clabo, it is assumed that our O-line is set, for better or for worse, with Martin at LT. If that is more worse than better, or if Martin gets hurt, it could be a long season. This scenario would surely contribute to the possibility of #1 above.

3. Secondary is a primary concern. At CB, we are counting on a handful of vets all either recovering from serious injury or are largely unproven, and a handful of rookies. At safety, things seem a bit more stable, but I read today that Jones' break-out season last year was dependent upon a system being built around him. More will be expected this year. And of course, as with all positions, injuries can totally change how successful the team can be within a system.

4. Chemistry We heard it all through free agency... buying a bunch of talented players in free agency very seldom leads to success on the field. If things don't click with Tannehill and the new receivers (see #1 above), or if the new players on defense don't communicate well or learn to work within the system, the playoffs are out of reach again.

5. plain old bad luck Some times, some teams just seem snake-bit. Whether it be season-ending injuries to key players, suspensions, fluke plays where the ball bounces just exactly the wrong way on a week-to-week basis, bad luck can trump almost any level of preparedness, especially with a young team trying to change its culture.

Having said all of that, I'm not giving in to pessimism. I believe this to be the most talented team Miami has had in well over a decade. Now it's Philbin's job to coach these guys up and get them all on the same page, and I believe he will.

11-5 is doable if we can get off to a strong start, but 10-6 could still get us into the post-season. Go Dolphins!

6) If Lamar Miller gets injured or fails to produce at least 1000 yards in rushiing.

7) If Miami fails to win at least 5 home games.

I thought about including the running game concerns, but with our depth I didn't think it warranted being in the top 5 though. I think Gilislee is good, and I am intrigued by our depth chart. I look forward to seeing Jonas Gray in the preseason.

I think he will develop more than anyone anticipates, with one year experience and a full offseason to prepare, and better players around him.


I'm slightly worried about this one. They have made a few signings, but I will feel more comfortable when I actually see how quickly Tannehill finds open receivers.


This one worries me more than the OL that everyone else seems most worried about. Im tired of giving up the big plays. They drafted some guys and signed a guy coming off an injury. It could be a great group, or it could be a disaster. We will see.


This one doesn't worry me at all. After watching Hard Knocks last year, I think Philbin is a great coach. He values high characters guys, the opposite of the NY jets, who I think will be the worst team in the NFL this year.


Injuries worry me all the time.

The offensive line and chemistry are the main concerns for me. As much as I like what I have seen from Jonathan Martin this off season, and the fact that he will be moving back to his natural position of OLT, until I see it on the field, there will be worries about him and the OL jelling into a cohesive unit.

There are a lot of new pieces being added, and getting the team to jell as a whole will be very key. This is where the coaching staff comes into play.

The AFC is pretty weak. There are at least 2 sub .500 teams in every division.

I'd say Miami is fighting with Cincy/Baltimore and Indy for a Wild Card spot. Miami has a great shot to make a run.

That said, I won't predict anything over .500 until I see it with this team.

One thing's for sure... if the Dolphins have another season like the past four, and if reasons 1 and 2 happen, then both Ireland and Philbin will be sent packing and we will be drafting a new QB and left tackle in 2014

I wouldn't say the AFC is weak as much as I would say that it's very juxtaposed. The good teams are really good, and the bad teams are pretty spectacularly bad. New England, Denver, Houston, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Indy are the cream of the crop right now. Then there's us (provided we put it all together on the field), and Cincinnati. Then a few steps below us is everyone else (New York, Buffalo, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Tennessee, San Diego, Oakland, Kansas City).

I think third year man Mike Pouncey becomes the leader of the offensive line. The question is, can Martin improve enough to do a passable job at LT, and will we have the depth to survive the inescapable injuries that come every year?

The Coaching ....

We find out what Philbin and the staff are made of this year. If they are worth anything this team improves.

Pittsburgh does not have a good team on paper. They're easily 3rd in that division and a sub .500 team, IMO.

On paper, I agree with you. But they've been one of the premiere franchises for quite a while now, so I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt.

Good post, k-dash. Always important to keep things in perspective.

Whoa..there is some serious red flags on that list.....The Titans wiped the field last year...You don't think they got better but the Steelers did?
And i would hardly call Indy the cream of the crop.

Tennessee was 6-10 last season. Until they start winning consistently they don't belong in the discussion. Yes, they have improved. Yes they improved more than Pittsburgh, but as I said, I'm giving Pitt the benefit of the doubt because of their winning history. Indy was a playoff team last year and they've only gotten better. They belong in the top 6.

And the Dolphins were 7-9 and got killed at home to the Titans....And they are a wild card team now... Oh and the powerhouse Steelers were 8-8 last year and lost some big time players this offseason because they are broke.

That really isn't saying much.

You have Pittsburgh winning that division? That would be the surprise of the year IMO if it happened. I think Cincy has a serious shot at taking the AFC North away from BAL and PITT this season.

And the Baltimore Ravens lost to the Eagles last season, I fail to see your point. Yes, the Steelers lost a lot of key players, but they had a good draft and will find a way to be a contender with Baltimore in the North. They have a hole at WR, but they'll be in the mix.

No, I have either Baltimore or Cincy winning. I meant the loser of the two is who Miami is competing with.

Thanks, Rich. I am what you would call cautiously optimistic.

With all of the new faces it's good that we landed the Hall of Fame game this season against Dallas. The extra game hopefully will help give the team a little more time playing together to get everything ready. Not only that but with all of the passing teams we'll face early in our schedule, it will be good for us to go up against a team with good receivers (should test our secondary). Not only that but facing the Texans and Saints in the preseason will be helpful as well (two more good teams that can sling it). I think if we can manage to come out of the preseason healthy that we should be ready to go. Five preseason games is more than enough time for this team to be ready for Cleveland week one. But week two is when we're going to see the cracks show if there are any. Facing Indy in Indy is going to be a very good measuring stick for this team early on. If we manage to start 2-0, then I think this team is going places.

I am also cautiously optimistic. And I agree that keeping things in perspective is important.

It is also important to realize that you are not saying these things will happen, but these are the biggest risks the team faces.

Thanks for the post!

did somebody say the Titans are gonna be good?

How anyone can say this is not a playoff team is just saying so they can give more props to the organization come December. This team is built to win this season , especially with all the one year rentals (contracts). 11+ wins is where they should be. while I am not saying they will go undefeated (only to give Mercury Morris a reason to still exist) , with the current state of the AFC they can represent the conference in February.

I know what you mean, but I would add something to your thought. This team is being built to win long term as well... the way the cap is being managed, and the kinds of contracts that have been offered, it seems the team is being built to win now and stay competitive long term as well.

Long term contracts to young "building block" type players, 1 year deals to address glaring needs with vets or players with injury concerns.

You're pretty spot on with the assessment. The three biggest issues will be Tannehill, the O-line and the coaching. Its funny how the IF part of Tannehill talk sort of disappeared over the last few months. It seemed almost assumed he'd be fine.

On paper I think Ireland has done a fine job this offseason. Jonathan Martin must be more impressive than we know because I can't see Ireland allowing his job to hinge on such a wild card. I'm not saying Pro Bowl caliber, but perhaps he can play above average ball and that will be good enough. I also think Dallas Thomas will be given enough practice reps to fill in if Martin is injured, but his primary job will be to battle for the LG position.

Can't really make any predictions until we see the product but on paper this looks like a 10-6 to me. I want to say better but Tannehill would have to be a top 10 QB and the banged up/young secondary would have to be impressive early. Those to variables lead me to think a 10-6/wild card team is probably the ceiling this year.