The difference is that I'm talking about Dumervil as a run defender. You're off somewhere else having your own conversation as usual.



Yet they graded out very well and ranked very well at stopping the run (3rd in the NFL) despite Dumervil's poor individual rankings.



No way in hell do I sign him to anything longer than a 1 year deal. With the way the contracts are escalating in 2014, there isn't going to be room for him to sign that kind of deal.

I sign him to a deal somewhere in between what Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril got per year. $5-$7 million because he does bring excellent pass rushing. But I also draft a pass rusher to replace him in 2014.

So the 2nd leading tackler on Denver's defensive line, a defense that ranked 3rd against the run, is a liability despite the fact that he was on the field all game long? Sounds to me like the guy was a major reason for their success.

You can cling to PFF stats all day long, but at the end of the day you have to look at things like tackles, sacks, and forced fumbles if you're going to judge how much of an impact a player has on the game.

If you want a perfect exampe of how your PFF stats are flawed, I'll give you one. Dumervil had 4 tackles in the game against Pittsburgh, yet received a red or negative scorecard.

It's stuff like this that makes me skeptical of your source.

One more thing, Justin Bannan, from that horrible, terrible Denver defensive line, was the 6th rated run stopper from a defensive tackle position in the NFL. Bannan had 24 stops against runners. Not 24 tackles... 24 stops, which means he held the running to negative or no gain. This is tied for 15th in the NFL. He had two less stops than Paul Soliai, who is ranked 12th.

Kevin Vickerson, the other tackle in the terrible Denver defensive line, was ranked 16th against the run amongst defensive tackles and also had 24 stops.

This is the terrible run stopping talent that Elvis Dumervil had to put up with while with the Broncos. Poor guy... he had two DTs in the top 20 at stopping the run. A claim no other 4-3 team in the NFL can make.

To make matters worse, Derek Wolfe was the 9th ranked run stopping 4-3 defensive end in the NFL with 22 stops on runners.

I'm not sure how Dumervil survived.

I'm sorry but Kevin Vickerson and Justin Bannan are nowhere near as talented as Soliai and Starks (two Pro Bowlers). The point I'm trying to make is that PFF is no better judge of a player's value than the stats I'm looking at.

It looks to me like PFF is taking their own grading system and creating a similar thing to QBR for each position.

1) Why do we grade?

The goal of our detailed grading process is to gauge how players execute their roles over the course of a game by looking at the performance of each individual on each play. We look beyond the stat sheet at game footage to try to gain an understanding of how well a lineman is blocking on a given play, how much space and help a runner is being given on a play, how effectively a pass rusher brings pressure or how well a defender covers a receiver.
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We collect lots of extra statistics such as yards after catch, yards after contact, missed tackles, dropped passes etc., but our real focus is on grading individual performance on each play. Did an offensive lineman seal his block to spring the runner through a hole? Did a defensive lineman beat his block to force a runner to change the play direction in the backfield? Was the crucial third-down completion due to the quarterback beating the coverage or a breakdown in coverage?
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We examine not just the statistical result of a play, but the context of that statistic. The defensive tackle may have made a tackle on a play, but if it was 3rd-and-5 and he got blown 4 yards off of the ball to make the tackle after a 6-yard gain, that’s not a good play.

2) What Do We Grade?

Throughout the course of the season (regular season and playoffs) we grade every single offensive, defensive and special teams snap. We log data such as the point of attack of a running play, the location a pass was thrown and hang time of kicks and punts before moving on to the player-performance analysis.
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A typical line of analysis will describe an offensive and defensive player being graded for a one-on-one confrontation. This will include their names and grades as well as a comment describing the play. So for example, a match-up between a right guard and left defensive tackle could result in the following comment:
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“The RG drove the DLT down the line of scrimmage opening a wide hole off his outside hip for the running back (##) to pick up the first down on 3rd & 3.”
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This type of notation serves a few purposes. First, it captures detail for grading, a concise comment that can be referenced back to individual players for further analysis at a later date. Also, due to each play having a unique ID, it also creates a clear and accessible audit trail for all analysis.

Ok, you're right, PFF is the end all be all of player evaluation. It's flawless, which is why the only place I've ever seen it is online on this website.


No other source I've seen utilizes it other than a couple of people here. Not ESPN, not NFL Network, not any of the larger national media outlets.

Stats are a great tool, but they are not everything. If numbers were all that mattered, mathmeticians would make personnel decisions. Stop watching Moneyball. Lol

If you are unaware of PFF, you better start doing your homework soon, you are clueless...

You apparently have missed what Jeff Ireland has been doing all offense then. All one has to do is review the PFF metrics for guys like Ellerbe and Wheeler to understand the kinds of "statistics" and characteristics he's looking for. Efficiency being in line with the contract is absolutely essential, not to mention being the right fit for the "scheme".

Dumervill is 29 .... his play has dropped as of late compared to other 4-3 DE's in the league, and he's purely a situational pass rusher. Our d-lineman are required to be more versatile than that. Let somebody else overpay for his services. I'd much rather pay a guy comparable in pass rushing skills who ALSO can set the edge against the run.

The point I'm trying to make is that PFF is no better judge of a player's value than the stats I'm looking at.

How many guys on the market right now had 20 sacks and 6 forced fumbles in the last two years? I don't see how you can say the guy's play has dropped when he set career highs in tackles and forced fumbles this year. Not only that, but his sack total went up this past year as well. If anything, he's getting better in the Denver system. I wouldn't be surprised if he got more than 11 sacks this year.

Let's not forget, Dumervil isn't a free agent because his team no longer wanted his services (as is the case with all of the other free agents), he's a free agent because of a fax machine fiasco. The Broncos still wanted Dumervil, and were willing to pay him around $8M a season. So if the Broncos think his value is still $8M a season over the next two to three years, I sure as heck have no problem with the Dolphins giving him two to three years and $6-7M a season. The guy is a good football player.

I don't think they would offer him that, at least I hope not.

I am sure you guys didn't all of a sudden uncover some hidden key regarding Dumervil by looking at PFF stats. I am sure guys who get paid to do this for a living know what he is and what he is about.

As far as PFF or any stats go, like I said before, it isn't all about stats. If it were, then personnel decisions would be so obvious.

Instead of eye rolling gifs, why don't you dust off your resume, attach some PFF stats to it since that is your ultimate source, and see if you can get an NFL GM job? Make sure to tell them you know all about PFF.

You can tell them to throw out all stats as you can't derive what a players does or does not do well with them. Let them know Dumervil is the NFL's best at setting the edge and stopping the run.

GM's around the league study the tape just like PFF does and grade players out. What they're doing isn't some bizarre statistics amalgam factoring in the amount of cleat spikes the lost on plays and grass stains on their pants.

I will say one thing for you when you decide to show your ignorance you don't hold anything back.

Tell me .... what happened to Dumervill's stats/efficiency LAST YEAR compared to the year prior? How about since his breakout year in 2009?

Exactly. He's getting older and starting to lose a step. It doesn't help that he's already a liability against the run. The Broncos knew this, yet they also know how to use him in THEIR system and can mask his deficiencies. We don't necessarily know that. The Broncos would pay a higher premium than we would for familiarity. $6-$7 million per is utterly ridiculous for the Dolphins to pay a guy who's purely situational.

According to PFF, some online stat site created by a guy who is no more qualified than any of us to judge NFL film. A site that is not associated with the NFL or any NFL team.

As of the 2011 season, PFF provides customized data to five NFL teams, along with a number of agents, media and NFL players

No other source I've seen utilizes it other than a couple of people here. Not ESPN, not NFL Network, not any of the larger national media outlets.

As of the 2011 season, PFF provides customized data to five NFL teams, along with a number of agents, media and NFL players

Although Lechler has led the NFL in punting average five times, he finished just 14th in Pro Football Focus' positional rankings for 2012.

...

In 2009, the site came to the attention of the Giants' Mr. Berger, an executive of the team since the early 1980s. As director of information, Mr. Berger is the team's official wonk, entering every play by every NFL team into a database in search of trends and tendencies that might be useful for Giants coaches.

It was while "messing around on Google" that Mr. Berger came across Pro Football Focus, and one statistic in particular struck him: player participation. The site listed the number of times each player in the NFL participated in a play during a game. That is a statistic the NFL tracks and releases only to teams—never to the public.

Doubtful about the accuracy of Mr. Hornsby's data, Mr. Berger checked it against the NFL data set and found Pro Football Focus was nearly perfect. Impressed, Mr. Berger sent Mr. Hornsby a congratulatory note. Mr. Hornsby was so surprised he thought one of his friends had pulled a prank on him.

Today, the site provides customized data to five NFL teams, Mr. Hornsby says, as well as to sports agents seeking to bolster their players' arguments for fat paychecks. Mr. Hornsby won't say which teams or agents are paying for his data. But he says revenue is now great enough that he employs four analysts to help him study game footage, and 13 others to count how many downs each NFL athlete plays per game.

...

With the preseason shortened by a labor dispute, August was busier than usual for Mr. Berger. But he agreed to meet with Mr. Hornsby, blocking out a full hour on his calendar.

The meeting lasted seven hours. Stunned at the material Mr. Hornsby produced from his laptop, Mr. Berger says he was especially intrigued by data showing where individual players most often line up on the field, and how they perform against certain formations and opponents.

"It was really impressive," says Mr. Berger, calling Mr. Hornsby the first outsider ever to supply usable data to the Giants.

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Mr. Berger says it is now customary for him to seek information from Mr. Hornsby about coming opponents.

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Unless you watch every snap of every game, it's nigh on impossible to evaluate offensive line play. You can infer some things from numbers, but that can often lead to incorrect conclusions.

For example, logic would say that Aaron Rodgers getting sacked the most of any quarterback means he has the worst pass-protecting line, right? Except that conclusion overlooks the fact eight of those sacks were due to Rodgers' decisions and another two were the results of skill position players not picking up the pass rush. It also doesn't consider the fact Rodgers is guilty of having the sixth-highest average time to sack (from when the ball is snapped) of any player in the league.

With our game charting and grading, however, Pro Football Focus accounts for those factors. And that is why the Packers are the 11th-ranked pass-blocking line in our rankings.

...

Can I redirect this back to the original topic (Elvis Dumervile) and say that had this happened last year, the headlines would have read: "Another Swing and a Miss by Ireland"

WK13, ball is in your court. Will you continue disparaging a site that is used by NFL teams and major news outlets, or will you admit that maybe there is some value and accuracy to what they do?

Ok, it appears that it is occasionally utilized by NFL.com.

But I still stand by my comments that it is not the end all be all stat source that you make it out to be. I'm not saying it's completely bogus. I'm just saying it isn't this flawless system that can be used as fact.

I have to take everything they say with a grain of salt.

But just know that these numbers are biased in that they are judged by a third party who may or may not have all of the necessary information to make such a judgement.

And ESPN.com and FIVE NFL TEAMS, INCLUDING THE GIANTS. There must be a reason why.



I never said it was the end all be all source or that it was flawless, but it gives context to statistics.

Apparently, you see a guy with 12 tackles in a game and you automatically assume he had an awesome game. It doesn't register with you that if all those tackles were 5-10 yards downfield, he actually had a very bad game.



But you see 50 tackles in a season with no context whatsoever and don't take that with a grain of salt.



But they have film and review every play on the film, while you go to the stats section on NFL.com and formalize your opinion solely on that.

And why do you keep mentioning that he is from the UK? Are people from Britain inherently dumber than people from other parts of the world or something?

We have British members that read and post on these forums. Are they somehow less sophisticated football fans than you because they are from the UK?

Who is the one being biased?

I look at the numbers from Dumervil, and watch most all of the games. I live in Denver and watch 90% of their games. I'm not just going to NFL.com and reading his stats. I'm going off of watching him his entire career, listening what the Denver/national media says about him, and making my own opinions. I'm not simply looking at statistics and letting someone else make my opinion up for me.

I never indicated that UK fans are less sophisticated, you came up with that on your own.

It's wonderful that the Giants use this system, although you cannot say or prove to what extent.

But do the Dolphins?

Even watching games on TV doesn't give you a full picture. I'm sure you weren't sitting there watching how Dumervil performs against the run on every play.

These guys at PFF watch film and grade each individual play. There is absolutely more context to what they do than to what you're doing watching a game on TV in which you're probably only focused on Dumervil when he gets a sack... not when he is being blown up 5 yards up the field by an offensive tackle.



Well you keep mentioning that he is from the UK as if that matters. You're the one making his nationality an issue. What else am I supposed to infer from you continuing to mention it other than you think it has some relevance to his ability to do an effective job at evaluating plays?



Are you ignoring AQNOR's posts?



The Dolphins keep missing the playoffs, the Giants are winning Superbowls.

Listen, you're the one diminishing or dismissing what PFF does without knowing anything about PFF. You probably went on wikipedia and read some snippet about the founder being from the UK and figured "HA! I'm about to win this argument" and looked silly in the process.

Little did you know that NFL teams use this guy's analysis to help them out. That says a lot about the guy and his method and the fact that the media cites his stats more and more, it has changed the way statistics and players are evalualated.

Agents use him. Players use him. Teams use him. The media uses him. Your argument was that you've never seen him cited by major media sources.

You should have done more homework before sticking your foot in it.

Poor form, Week 13.

AQNOR, I think WK13 must have you on ignore. He didn't read the excellent article you posted about how the Giants use Pro Football Focus to help them with player evaluations.

I hope your feelings aren't hurt.

All this article shows is that his information is basically useless to an NFL team.

1. Elvis Dumervil, Denver Broncos

2012 Cap Hit: $15.6m
2012 Performance Based Value: $1.6m
Value Differential: -$14.0m

In what will become a running theme for this list, it’s not enough for an edge defender to just be a good pass rusher. This is especially true if he couples that with poor run defense and costly penalties. Dumervil mustered only 16 run stops on the season, and his 4.8 Run Stop Percentage was among the worst rates at his position. Throw in the eight times he was flagged, and you have the most overpaid edge defender in the league.