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 Drafting a QB 
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Post Drafting a QB
This article from 2008 was just too entertaining not to share with all of you. Its a nice was of helping put things into perspective going into this draft and Miami's quest to solve the QB issue. A lot of guys already have strong opinions on the projected first round QBs this year and I certainly have my favorites, but I'll admit my history of QB draft judgment hasn't been stellar. Lets just say I thought Brian Brohm was "the guy" for Miami. If that guy is still in the NFL next year I'll be surprised.

I think there are some intriguing non-first round guys this year.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft08/c ... id=3263814


Mon Jan 17, 2011 1:15 pm
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Post Re: Drafting a QB
The last non-first round QB to become anything was back in 2005, where Orton, Cassel and Fitzpatrick were mid and late round picks. Since then none have developed into anything more than back-ups.

The last 3 drafts have produced the following 1st round QB's:

Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco
Josh Freeman
Mark Sanchez
Matt Stafford
Sam Bradford

All of them are starting caliber QB's right now, and say what you will about Sanchez, he makes plays and in 2 years has won 4 road playoff games. Ryan and Flacco have been to the Post season multiple times in their first 3 years, Freeman lead his crap team to a 10 win season, and Bradford as a rookie was one win away from the playoffs despite playing with NOTHING around him. Stafford has the injury bug, but it is a real solid starter when healthy with the potential to be elite, IMO.

If Miami wants a franchise QB, you have to go get him in the first round.

I honestly don't like any QB in the entire draft with the exception of Blaine Gabbert. I think this could turn into another 2007 class. Personally, I would sign a FA stopgap to compete with Henne and trade up for Gabbert and let him sit on the bench for a year or two as he adjusts to the NFL game.


Mon Jan 17, 2011 1:34 pm
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Post Re: Drafting a QB
Phins Rock wrote:
The last non-first round QB to become anything was back in 2005, where Orton, Cassel and Fitzpatrick were mid and late round picks. Since then none have developed into anything more than back-ups.


Think about the time frame there. 5 years before any of them really solidified a job. Before September Cassel was another potential bust, Fitzpatrick was competition at best and Orton was pretty much average.

Its a little early to say guys from the past few drafts won't amount to anything. And your take on Gabbert is exactly why I liked the article. Who the heck knows what these guys will amount too or how their potential is viewed by scouts? In 2007 people saw Russell and Quinn and franchise guys. In 2008 people thought teams would trade up to get Henne and Brohm while Flacco was considered a 2nd rounder maybe dropping.

Getting a 1st round QB might be a great move if they see someone they like, but its still a big guessing game.


Mon Jan 17, 2011 1:41 pm
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Post Re: Drafting a QB
jammer wrote:
Phins Rock wrote:
The last non-first round QB to become anything was back in 2005, where Orton, Cassel and Fitzpatrick were mid and late round picks. Since then none have developed into anything more than back-ups.


Think about the time frame there. 5 years before any of them really solidified a job. Before September Cassel was another potential bust, Fitzpatrick was competition at best and Orton was pretty much average.

Its a little early to say guys from the past few drafts won't amount to anything. And your take on Gabbert is exactly why I liked the article. Who the heck knows what these guys will amount too or how their potential is viewed by scouts? In 2007 people saw Russell and Quinn and franchise guys. In 2008 people thought teams would trade up to get Henne and Brohm while Flacco was considered a 2nd rounder maybe dropping.

Getting a 1st round QB might be a great move if they see someone they like, but its still a big guessing game.


No doubt. But you can't deny the results over the last few seasons. First round QB's have been panning out (all of them over the last 3 years). While late and mid round guys just are not developing. Even the one that did, Matt Cassel, was a back-up at USC. So, who knows when he would be drafted had he been starting somewhere...

Regarding Orton and Fitzpatrick, I think they've been the same QB over the last 3 years or so. I don't know that I would say it took them these 5 years to blossom...And neither is a franchise QB anyway.

Hindsight is 20/20, but even if you look at the busts over the last decade or so, you can find very similar reasons for them. Either 1) they didn't have the maturity (VY, Russel, Leinart), 2) they went to impossible destinations to flourish (Carr, Harrington, Smith) 3) they had awful mechanics (Quinn).

Then you have some that just never got IT, (Campbell, Leftwhich, Boller, Grossman).

Definitely still a guessing game, but I think if a guy has 1) Talent (including QB mechanics), 2) maturity, and 3) smarts, chances are he's going to pan out.


Mon Jan 17, 2011 1:51 pm
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Post Re: Drafting a QB
Again, its only been a few years for "project guys." They aren't expected to be blossoming yet. As for the three mentioned, I agree none of them screams franchise QB. The point was none of them had solidified a job until this year and now all of them will be starters (maybe elsewhere for Orton) next season. If they entered the league in 2005 and are just now cementing their positions then they are products of patience, development and making the most of an opportunity.

Its good that recent first rounders are doing well but there is plenty of time for them to falter. Culpepper is an example of that.


Mon Jan 17, 2011 2:08 pm
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Post Re: Drafting a QB
jammer, to be fair to Daunte, his career was really solid while with Minnesota, and things started to go bad for Daunte when he suffered that devastating knee injury.

I always thought he rushed to try to play for Miami, as that knee injury was just to serious to rush trying to get back. To tear an ACL is one thing, but to tear the MCL & MCL along with it was another.

Phins Rock, I certainly do not like TRADING UP to get a QB that is going to sit for a couple of years. I know you love Blaine Gabbertt and seemed to be convinced that no other QB coming out is not of his caliber, but there no way I am trading picks to get a QB to SIT. And I don't even need to state how strongly I disagree with you on Gabbertt and the other QB's in this draft. There not much separating him from the other QB coming out that will go in the 1st round.

And true, there has been success when drafting QB in the 1st round, but there have been plenty of failures also. Just remember that Drew Brees was a 2nd round pick.

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Mon Jan 17, 2011 2:40 pm
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Post Re: Drafting a QB
phinsfansc wrote:
jammer, to be fair to Daunte, his career was really solid while with Minnesota, and things started to go bad for Daunte when he suffered that devastating knee injury.

I always thought he rushed to try to play for Miami, as that knee injury was just to serious to rush trying to get back. To tear an ACL is one thing, but to tear the MCL & MCL along with it was another.

Phins Rock, I certainly do not like TRADING UP to get a QB that is going to sit for a couple of years. I know you love Blaine Gabbertt and seemed to be convinced that no other QB coming out is not of his caliber, but there no way I am trading picks to get a QB to SIT. And I don't even need to state how strongly I disagree with you on Gabbertt and the other QB's in this draft. There not much separating him from the other QB coming out that will go in the 1st round.

And true, there has been success when drafting QB in the 1st round, but there have been plenty of failures also. Just remember that Drew Brees was a 2nd round pick.


I agree somewhat on Daunte, but he was playing poorly before the knee injury in 05. Its only one example so I'm not sure how much weight it carries, but just shows that things can happen.

I will agree with Phins Rock that this year's QB crop doesn't really have that guy who stands out ala Matt Stafford or Sam Bradford.


Mon Jan 17, 2011 3:06 pm
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Post Re: Drafting a QB
Look at like this , the two guys picked in the first round that year (Ryan and Flacco) have both turned out ok. It is going to be a whole new ball game once this team has a signal caller to match the rest of our personnel.


Mon Jan 17, 2011 3:30 pm
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Post Re: Drafting a QB
2005 was the first year for Daunte without Randy Moss, as he had been traded to the Raiders. He did have 6 TD and 12 INT before his knee got tore up. I definitely think he was trying to do to much without Moss, but those numbers certainly were not good even though he was completing 64% of his passes.

Certainly after that, things took a turn for the worst for Cullpepper.

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Mon Jan 17, 2011 7:05 pm
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