Phins Rock wrote:
The last non-first round QB to become anything was back in 2005, where Orton, Cassel and Fitzpatrick were mid and late round picks. Since then none have developed into anything more than back-ups.
Think about the time frame there. 5 years before any of them really solidified a job. Before September Cassel was another potential bust, Fitzpatrick was competition at best and Orton was pretty much average.
Its a little early to say guys from the past few drafts won't amount to anything. And your take on Gabbert is exactly why I liked the article. Who the heck knows what these guys will amount too or how their potential is viewed by scouts? In 2007 people saw Russell and Quinn and franchise guys. In 2008 people thought teams would trade up to get Henne and Brohm while Flacco was considered a 2nd rounder maybe dropping.
Getting a 1st round QB might be a great move if they see someone they like, but its still a big guessing game.
No doubt. But you can't deny the results over the last few seasons. First round QB's have been panning out (all of them over the last 3 years). While late and mid round guys just are not developing. Even the one that did, Matt Cassel, was a back-up at USC. So, who knows when he would be drafted had he been starting somewhere...
Regarding Orton and Fitzpatrick, I think they've been the same QB over the last 3 years or so. I don't know that I would say it took them these 5 years to blossom...And neither is a franchise QB anyway.
Hindsight is 20/20, but even if you look at the busts over the last decade or so, you can find very similar reasons for them. Either 1) they didn't have the maturity (VY, Russel, Leinart), 2) they went to impossible destinations to flourish (Carr, Harrington, Smith) 3) they had awful mechanics (Quinn).
Then you have some that just never got IT, (Campbell, Leftwhich, Boller, Grossman).
Definitely still a guessing game, but I think if a guy has 1) Talent (including QB mechanics), 2) maturity, and 3) smarts, chances are he's going to pan out.