View unanswered posts | View active topics It is currently Sat Aug 30, 2014 1:17 pm



Reply to topic  [ 14 posts ] 
 Commentary:You may think the Dolphins' 5-4 record looks good 
Author Message
Online
2014 Phinfever VIP!
2014 Phinfever VIP!

Joined: Tue Jan 12, 2010 10:17 am
Posts: 3373
Post Commentary:You may think the Dolphins' 5-4 record looks good
Quote:
By Greg Stoda Palm Beach Post Staff Writer

Posted: 5:40 p.m. Wednesday, Nov. 17, 2010

Post a Comment E-mail Print ShareLarger Type Small Type
DAVIE — The harsh truth is that the Dolphins' 5-4 record looks better than it is.

Because as a tweeter or an e-mailer or a blogger wrote to one of my colleagues the other day, it's the wrong 5-4. Indeed, it is.

An even harsher truth is that Miami could win its next three games (Thursday vs. Chicago at home, at Oakland and Cleveland at home), even with Tyler Thigpen as its starting quarterback, but still be swimming in deep water in terms of AFC playoff qualification.

It's all about the composition of the 5-4 record.

You see, the perspective from mid-November is a whole lot different than it was from early September.

If you told the Dolphins back on Labor Day that their record on Nov. 17 would be 5-4, they likely would have been happy. That's because the season's first half included what appeared to be an abundance of difficult assignments - at Minnesota, New York Jets, New England, at Green Bay, Pittsburgh, at Cincinnati and at Baltimore.

More than a few folks (yes, including me), thought the prospect of the Dolphins managing a break-even record at the middle point of the season, which they did, would have amounted to a great escape.

But that was then.

In hindsight, the Dolphins surely would prefer to trade a couple of their victories for a couple of the losses, specifically wins over the Vikings and Packers for losses against the Jets and Patriots. If so, that would significantly alter the complexion of the AFC East race - a race in which Miami finds itself two games off the pace set by New York and New England.

What it amounts to, quite simply, is that the reward for the wins against Minnesota and Green Bay is appreciably less than the penalty for the New York and New England losses.

The Dolphins' remaining schedule is mostly accommodating - outside of visits to the Jets and Patriots - but, hey, that's a big outside. Asked if he thinks Miami has any margin for error from now to the end of the season, Dolphins running back Ronnie Brown was succinct.

"No," he said.

OK, that's probably an exaggeration, but it's not a substantial one.

Only six AFC teams get to the playoffs and only five teams have a better record than the Dolphins. The rub is that Miami has lost to four of the five teams (Jets, Patriots, Steelers and Ravens), which will put the Dolphins at a distinct disadvantage if head-to-head tiebreakers are needed to sort out the playoff bracket. It's also worth noting that Miami is one of five AFC teams stuck in a 5-4 glut.

...


http://www.palmbeachpost.com/sports/dol ... s_dolphins


Wed Nov 17, 2010 8:20 pm
Profile
Phinfever Blog Writer - Thursdays
Phinfever Blog Writer - Thursdays

Joined: Wed Jan 13, 2010 10:47 am
Posts: 5609
Post Re: Commentary:You may think the Dolphins' 5-4 record looks good
True Miami loses the head to head tie breaker but that is only valid if 2 teams are vying for one spot. If its 3 or more, it falls to division, then conference records. While I'll agree there isn't much room for error, they could still lose to an NFC team, win the rest and have a great shot of making the playoffs. If they lose to another AFC team, they'll have to finish with a better record than any one of the 4 (Pitt, Balt, NE or Jets) to have a shot. This is assuming the AFC south only fields a division winner


Wed Nov 17, 2010 8:37 pm
Profile
Phinfever Global Moderator
Phinfever Global Moderator

Joined: Tue Jan 12, 2010 11:28 am
Posts: 7532
Location: Massachusetts
Post Re: Commentary:You may think the Dolphins' 5-4 record looks good
Exactly right. What I've been preaching.


Wed Nov 17, 2010 8:51 pm
Profile
Phinfever Starter
Phinfever Starter

Joined: Fri Jan 15, 2010 9:51 am
Posts: 226
Post Re: Commentary:You may think the Dolphins' 5-4 record looks good
I love the AFC this year. How great is it that basically every team is sweating playoff elimination before November. This is the most tense I can remember the entire AFC being this early. Only Cincy an Buffalo are gone (Houston is close) and nobody can safely afford to lose 2 more games. 11-4 is no guarantee of a spot. (just ask the Pats) Virtually every NFL game will have significant playoff implications for the rest of the year and it's not even Thanksgiving.

_________________
Thanks for making the sig PZ.


Wed Nov 17, 2010 10:11 pm
Profile
Phinfever Ring of Honor
Phinfever Ring of Honor

Joined: Thu Jan 14, 2010 2:39 pm
Posts: 1006
Post Re: Commentary:You may think the Dolphins' 5-4 record looks good
NFLJunkie wrote:
True Miami loses the head to head tie breaker but that is only valid if 2 teams are vying for one spot. If its 3 or more, it falls to division, then conference records.


The first tie is head to head, then conference (if the teams are outside the division). Division record means nothing for Wild Card ties (if the teams are from different divisions)

NFLJunkie wrote:
If they lose to another AFC team, they'll have to finish with a better record than any one of the 4 (Pitt, Balt, NE or Jets) to have a shot.


True. Look at it this way. They need a better record than the AFC North Wild Card team OR they need to finish in 2nd in the East. If both of those things do not happen, there is no way they can make the playoffs.

_________________
Image


Wed Nov 17, 2010 11:54 pm
Profile
Phinfever Legend
Phinfever Legend

Joined: Sat Apr 17, 2010 5:59 pm
Posts: 5117
Post Re: Commentary:You may think the Dolphins' 5-4 record looks good
Let's face it, the Jets are way ahead of where they should be right now. They should have lost to the Browns last week and how they won in Denver was a joke as well. Heck they barelly beat us! The Jets are 7-2 right now, but if you ask me, they should be 5-4 like us. The AFC East is red hot right now, I expect it will cool off. Here is where I think we will all wind up:
1. New England 11-5
2. New York 11-5
3. Miami 10-6
4. Buffalo 4-12
Does 10-6 mean we make the playoffs? I'm not sure, I just hope it does for our sake.


Thu Nov 18, 2010 2:27 am
Profile
Phinfever Blog Writer - Thursdays
Phinfever Blog Writer - Thursdays

Joined: Wed Jan 13, 2010 10:47 am
Posts: 5609
Post Re: Commentary:You may think the Dolphins' 5-4 record looks good
It is my feeling if they finish 10-6 they'll probably be watching the playoffs. Unless Baltimore or Pittsburgh crash and finish 9-7.


Thu Nov 18, 2010 12:28 pm
Profile
2014 Phinfever VIP!
2014 Phinfever VIP!
User avatar

Joined: Tue Jan 12, 2010 3:23 pm
Posts: 4116
Post Re: Commentary:You may think the Dolphins' 5-4 record looks good
If Miami is not capable of winning a playoff game, like last X amount of times that they have went, then they are better off going to the house. I'm not interested in just getting there. I'm intereseted in can the advance once they get there.

If the answer is no then end the season & start working on next year.


Thu Nov 18, 2010 2:13 pm
Profile
Phinfever Hall of Famer
Phinfever Hall of Famer
User avatar

Joined: Wed Jan 13, 2010 3:42 pm
Posts: 955
Post Re: Commentary:You may think the Dolphins' 5-4 record looks good
Well.. We have to win 1 at a time. And we should be 6-3 as far as I'm concerned. That darn Pittsburgh game is going to come back to haunt me.

_________________
Image


Thu Nov 18, 2010 2:41 pm
Profile
Phinfever Blog Writer - Thursdays
Phinfever Blog Writer - Thursdays

Joined: Wed Jan 13, 2010 10:47 am
Posts: 5609
Post Re: Commentary:You may think the Dolphins' 5-4 record looks good
Quote:
TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION
If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

Two Clubs
Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in common games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss
Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated during any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format).

Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in common games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss
TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM
If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.

If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.
Two Clubs
Head-to-head, if applicable.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in conference games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss.
Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in conference games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss
When the first Wild-Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second Wild-Card, i.e., eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. In situations where three or more teams from the same division are involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains the same for subsequent applications of the tie breaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for a Wild-Card berth.


So if I'm reading this right, the best case scenario is to
A. Finish with a better record than any wild card contender
b. Have NE and the Jets finish with better records, then have Miami tied with more than 1 team outside the division.
I guess "A" should really read...win the division outright


Thu Nov 18, 2010 4:40 pm
Profile
Phinfever Veteran
Phinfever Veteran

Joined: Sat Jan 16, 2010 3:38 pm
Posts: 544
Post Re: Commentary:You may think the Dolphins' 5-4 record looks good
Dphins4me wrote:
If Miami is not capable of winning a playoff game, like last X amount of times that they have went, then they are better off going to the house. I'm not interested in just getting there. I'm intereseted in can the advance once they get there.

If the answer is no then end the season & start working on next year.


that would be quite the foresight. get out the crystal ball.


Thu Nov 18, 2010 4:57 pm
Profile
Phinfever Blog Writer - Thursdays
Phinfever Blog Writer - Thursdays

Joined: Wed Jan 13, 2010 10:47 am
Posts: 5609
Post Re: Commentary:You may think the Dolphins' 5-4 record looks good
The whole point of the playoffs is anything can happen. The Jets backed into the playoffs because two teams basically played backups the whole game. They didn't earn a thing. Once in, they did the unthinkable and began bumping off teams one at a time. Miami could be that team this year.


Thu Nov 18, 2010 8:35 pm
Profile
Phinfever Legend
Phinfever Legend
User avatar

Joined: Thu Jan 14, 2010 2:55 pm
Posts: 5439
Post Re: Commentary:You may think the Dolphins' 5-4 record looks good
If this team plays like they did on Sunday, they can beat any team in the league.

_________________
Image


Thu Nov 18, 2010 8:46 pm
Profile
Online
Phinfever Global Moderator
Phinfever Global Moderator
User avatar

Joined: Tue Jan 12, 2010 6:53 pm
Posts: 3697
Location: Palm Beach County, Florida
Post Re: Commentary:You may think the Dolphins' 5-4 record looks good
we are gonna make the playoffs
we are gonna go deep into the playoffs
no fat lady singing that I can see

_________________
Extend Philbin!
Enough already , this is the best regime in the NFL ...by far!!
2014 Lazor Powered... THE MAKING OF A DYNASTY!!


Thu Nov 18, 2010 9:09 pm
Profile
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Reply to topic   [ 14 posts ] 

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: AQNOR and 6 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007, 2010 phpBB Group.
Designed by Coots & IamPZ - Phinfever.com.