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PostPosted: Wed Jun 08, 2022 7:41 am 
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Predictions for the 2022 Dolphins season are all over the place, but the money says an 8-9 record this year. That's a losing season. I don't think any of us would be happy with that as most feel this is a rising team. Where is Dr. Strange?

PFF wrote:
Miami has the eighth-hardest schedule in the league this upcoming season, with an average opponent — after adjusting for home-field advantage and rest — 0.37 points better than the average team on a neutral field.

Our simulation has the Dolphins winning an average of 8.2 games in 2022. We have them winning eight or fewer games 54.6% of the time, winning nine games 14.0% of the time and winning 10 or more games 31.4% of the time.

Thus, for the 8.5 index, the required break-even of a +110 bet is 47.6%, which is easily surpassed by the aforementioned 54.6%. This represents a seven-percentage-point edge.

For the 9 index, the break-even is 55.6% of non-push events, which is surpassed by the 54.6%/(54.6% + 31.4%) = 63.4% of the non-push events where the Dolphins go under nine wins. This represents a 7.8-percentage-point edge, making it the better of the two win-total bets.

This is a situation where the markets are giving you value in fading an improved but overvalued team in a tough division and conference. While the Dolphins could very well be moving in the right direction, they will likely have to improve significantly to have a better record than last year. Bet against that.


https://www.pff.com/news/bet-2022-nfl-b ... i-dolphins

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 08, 2022 7:49 am 
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Quote:
Miami has the eighth-hardest schedule in the league this upcoming season


Where do these stats come from? I thought I saw that Miami had the 11th easiest schedule in the league. I believe it's like taking a poll and twisting the results to support a specific theory.


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 08, 2022 8:11 am 
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vafinfan wrote:
Quote:
Miami has the eighth-hardest schedule in the league this upcoming season


Where do these stats come from? I thought I saw that Miami had the 11th easiest schedule in the league. I believe it's like taking a poll and twisting the results to support a specific theory.


Just about everywhere I read they do mention Miami's tough schedule. The thing is, teams are not the same every year. We do open the season with 4 straight tough games with the Patriots as the easiest ... and, you never discount a Belicheat-coached team when he has the whole summer to prepare for your game. The good thing is that these teams have not seen our offense and not much will be revealed in the preseason, so, it will be more difficult for those four teams to game plan us.

Why we don't believe the talking heads.

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https://twitter.com/JoeRobbie_/status/1 ... 8847801348

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