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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:10 am 
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I looked at this and realized I probably would have something incredibly similar if I tried the same thing.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000 ... joe-burrow

In my opinion would Miami trade picks 5, 18, 56, 2021 1st Round Pick to Cincinnati for the 1st overall pick.

They have filled so many holes in free agency that it makes something like this possible. So they would land:

1. Joe Burrow QB

26. Josh Jones OT

I've read more positive things about Austin Jackson as a prospect so I would take him over Jones at LT simply because Jackson I want a guy with a higher floor protecting my new QB.

In Round 2 I'm going either Lucas Niang or Ezra Cleveland to be my new RT and kicking Jesse Davis inside. Both are needs but would also be darn close to BPA if still on the board.

Round 3 becomes difficult. Do I go with a RB to pair with Jordan Howard? Do I grab a falling Edge prospect to hedge against Lawson and/or Ogbah being a bust? How about a CB to pair with Byron Jones when Howard gets hurt again?

Miami needs a guy to clog the middle and I'm looking at Davon Hamilton from Ohio State. He gives Miami the chance to run a 3-4 when needed helps build their vision of stopping the run.

Thoughts?


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:48 am 
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Not sure about the Phins ability to move to the one spot, depends on what the Bengals think of Herbert. Maybe a solid move for the Bengals, collect high draft picks, let Dalton play out his final year and have Herbert for '21.

With the Lions Trade of CB Darrius Slay, it's a strong likelihood they will trade out and grab Ohio State CB Jeff Okudah with a later pick. If the Skins grab Tua, then they likely stay put and get Young.

A very interesting draft indeed, the good news for the Phins is Carolina and Tampa Bay are out of the race for Herbert or Tua.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:06 am 
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Miami can go several routes.

This is by far the most interesting potential 1st round I’ve seen with this team. Gonna be very interesting.

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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:38 am 
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shularino wrote:
Not sure about the Phins ability to move to the one spot, depends on what the Bengals think of Herbert. Maybe a solid move for the Bengals, collect high draft picks, let Dalton play out his final year and have Herbert for '21.

With the Lions Trade of CB Darrius Slay, it's a strong likelihood they will trade out and grab Ohio State CB Jeff Okudah with a later pick. If the Skins grab Tua, then they likely stay put and get Young.

A very interesting draft indeed, the good news for the Phins is Carolina and Tampa Bay are out of the race for Herbert or Tua.

Why would Tampa Bay not look to draft a QB? Brady is there on a 2 year deal but maybe it’s a 1 year deal if he continues to decline or gets a major injury.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:01 am 
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shularino wrote:
Not sure about the Phins ability to move to the one spot, depends on what the Bengals think of Herbert.


Not necessarily. Bengals could drop to 5 and then trade back up for Tua at 3.

But yes, lots of possibilities.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:13 am 
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I would assume when Tom Brady signed with Tampa Bay, an agreement on strengthening the O-line and run game early in the draft was agreed to, so I don't believe a 1st Round QB pick will happen.

For me, Carolina is another deal entirely. Bridgewater's deal is a "Bridge" deal. 3 years @ $20M is not a franchise deal. If the right QB is available at #7, a QB might head to Charlotte. Love could sit for a couple years, for instance.

I'm intrigued by the Burrow noise.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:35 am 
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jammer wrote:
Not necessarily. Bengals could drop to 5 and then trade back up for Tua at 3.

But yes, lots of possibilities.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:49 pm 
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jgod1 wrote:
I would assume when Tom Brady signed with Tampa Bay, an agreement on strengthening the O-line and run game early in the draft was agreed to, so I don't believe a 1st Round QB pick will happen.

For me, Carolina is another deal entirely. Bridgewater's deal is a "Bridge" deal. 3 years @ $20M is not a franchise deal. If the right QB is available at #7, a QB might head to Charlotte. Love could sit for a couple years, for instance.

I'm intrigued by the Burrow noise.

So you’re saying that he signed a co tract that said they they had to draft OL players or else the deal was void?i find that hard to believe.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:47 am 
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Phin wrote:
jgod1 wrote:
I would assume when Tom Brady signed with Tampa Bay, an agreement on strengthening the O-line and run game early in the draft was agreed to, so I don't believe a 1st Round QB pick will happen.

For me, Carolina is another deal entirely. Bridgewater's deal is a "Bridge" deal. 3 years @ $20M is not a franchise deal. If the right QB is available at #7, a QB might head to Charlotte. Love could sit for a couple years, for instance.

I'm intrigued by the Burrow noise.

So you’re saying that he signed a co tract that said they they had to draft OL players or else the deal was void?i find that hard to believe.


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I think he's just saying they had a gentlemen's agreement to build a win now roster. Give Brady a brick wall and they can win. He has some excellent receiving targets if given time.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:46 am 
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AFCMiamiEast wrote:
jammer wrote:
Not necessarily. Bengals could drop to 5 and then trade back up for Tua at 3.

But yes, lots of possibilities.


Madness is correct, especially when it involves two of the worst organizations in the NFL whose “achievements” over several decades has been getting nothing right. I mean, what could go wrong?

The Dolphins, needing an injection of talent all throughout the roster, giving up all those hard to come by assets for one prospect who no one knows how his college achievements will translate to the pros would be the kind of move the Dolphins have been known for, ie., they’ve all failed. Making this pessimistic scenario all the more real is knowing that they could have been sitting at no. 1 without all these shenanigans had Grier put his foot down in December and mandate from Flores to play Rosen thus ensuring the first overall pick, which by the way, had been the objective since August.

Having to pay through the nose to move up to where they could have easily been is to me the elephant in the room in this situation and should it go through has all the makings of a ten car pileup.

For the Bengals, and it’s the only silver lining I feel for Dolphins fans, is that them giving up the chance at a franchise QB by trading down, would be just like what has earned them the nickname “Bungels”.

Something will have to give here. Both can’t be true, so littl’ ol’ me would prefer a status quo and let Miami, whose drafting track record is worse than poor, keep all those picks so maybe one, or two, actually make our roster more talented, while still getting a QB that may or may not have the same potential as a very expensive, never a sure thing, Burrow.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:43 am 
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Phin wrote:
Why would Tampa Bay not look to draft a QB? Brady is there on a 2 year deal but maybe it’s a 1 year deal if he continues to decline or gets a major injury.


My point is Tampa will not be aggressive in trading up to get a QB. With the Brady there, the emphasis will be on winning now. To your point, maybe they should draft a QB, but I don't think Brady came there to mentor his replacement.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:08 pm 
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carreramia wrote:
AFCMiamiEast wrote:
jammer wrote:
Not necessarily. Bengals could drop to 5 and then trade back up for Tua at 3.

But yes, lots of possibilities.



Something will have to give here. Both can’t be true, so littl’ ol’ me would prefer a status quo and let Miami, whose drafting track record is worse than poor, keep all those picks so maybe one, or two, actually make our roster more talented, while still getting a QB that may or may not have the same potential as a very expensive, never a sure thing, Burrow.


LMAO! But I don't follow your logic. If it would be smart of us to stay put and smart of them to stay put, and neither of us is known for making smart decisions, then the conclusion is obvious.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:57 pm 
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prof123 wrote:
and neither of us is known for making smart decisions, then the conclusion is obvious.


exactly! the whole thing is a bust and the Patriots find their next Brady in the 5h round.

Now, isn’t that the way of the worst franchises in football!?

Or maybe I’ve been watching too much Three Stooges with my grandkids....they absolutely love those shows.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:13 pm 
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carreramia wrote:
and the Patriots find their next Brady in the 5h round.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:25 pm 
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Matt Ryan-1st
Arron Rodgers-1st
Matt Stafford-1st
David Carr-1st
Baker Mayfield-1st
Kyler Murray-1st
Sam Darnold-1st
Daniel Jones-1st
Josh Allen-1st
Pat Maholmes-1st
Carson Wentz-1st
Deshaun Watson-1st
Jared Goff-1st

And there’s more, along with 4 other starters in the 2nd.

To hope or having the luck of picking an NFL starting QB in later rounds is even worse than picking one with a 1st. There’s no analytical proof that we should wait past the 1st to get our QB. The Chiefs didn't wait to build their line up to pick Mahomes. Plus, no one is expecting us to keep all 14 picks. I say if the conviction is there pick up Burrow, especially when our farm is big enough to still have serious capital when we sell 1/3rd of it off for him.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:47 am 
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jammer wrote:
In my opinion would Miami trade picks 5, 18, 56, 2021 1st Round Pick to Cincinnati for the 1st overall pick.

They have filled so many holes in free agency that it makes something like this possible. So they would land:

1. Joe Burrow QB

I cannot agree, to give up picks for a 5th yr senior that did it one yr. Might regret, but I do not see special with Burrow. I see Andy Dalton new & improved.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:37 am 
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Dphins4me wrote:
jammer wrote:
In my opinion would Miami trade picks 5, 18, 56, 2021 1st Round Pick to Cincinnati for the 1st overall pick.

They have filled so many holes in free agency that it makes something like this possible. So they would land:

1. Joe Burrow QB

I cannot agree, to give up picks for a 5th yr senior that did it one yr. Might regret, but I do not see special with Burrow. I see Andy Dalton new & improved.


I'm not sure I could give up all that either, although, I think Burrow is going to be a good QB. Very smart kid and knows what he can and can't do. I just wouldn't trade all those picks when we still have a lot of needs. I'd wait and grab Herbert if Burrow and Tua are taken. Herbert is an upgraded Tannehill ... just build the offense around him.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:18 am 
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For as much smoke as we have seen on Burrow I'm reminded of Grier's comments about having a few good players rather than one great player.

That should be a telling answer to any trade up scenario.

And I'm with Dave regarding Herbert at 5. If LA trades up for Tua then fine. Take Herbert at 5 and do with him what Tennessee did with Tannehill. He's already more capable than Tannehill was in 2012. Or, go with the upside of Love but know he isn't seeing the field until at least 2021 or maybe longer.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:20 am 
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Dphins4me wrote:
I see Andy Dalton new & improved.


I have never seen Andy Dalton evade pass rush and make plays downfield like Burrow consistently can.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:24 am 
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Rich wrote:
Dphins4me wrote:
I see Andy Dalton new & improved.


I have never seen Andy Dalton evade pass rush and make plays downfield like Burrow consistently can.


:))

I've got to agree with Rich on this one, Scot. They are always saying that Andy Dalton is getting ready to take the next step and he never does. Burrow should be an upgrade at the QB position over Dalton. For whatever reason, Dalton implodes.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:13 pm 
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Big Dave wrote:
Rich wrote:

I have never seen Andy Dalton evade pass rush and make plays downfield like Burrow consistently can.


I've got to agree with Rich on this one, Scot. They are always saying that Andy Dalton is getting ready to take the next step and he never does. Burrow should be an upgrade at the QB position over Dalton. For whatever reason, Dalton implodes.
Sure you have not seen Dalton do that. He is not playing collegiate football with the best OL, best WR & top RB. Its why I called him Dalton new & improved.

Fun fact is until last yr you had not seen Burrow do it either. 5th yr senior that had to transfer to find a starting job.

Fact is. In Apr. 2019 not one person would talking about Burrow. He was a 4th-6th Rd. QB had he came out. I cannot fall in love with one yr wonders at the QB spot. NFL history says one yrs wonders bomb in the NFL. Do not fall in love with one yr wonders, they will fool you more times than respond.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:14 pm 
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jammer wrote:
For as much smoke as we have seen on Burrow I'm reminded of Grier's comments about having a few good players rather than one great player.

That should be a telling answer to any trade up scenario.

And I'm with Dave regarding Herbert at 5. If LA trades up for Tua then fine. Take Herbert at 5 and do with him what Tennessee did with Tannehill. He's already more capable than Tannehill was in 2012. Or, go with the upside of Love but know he isn't seeing the field until at least 2021 or maybe longer.

Gamble on greatness. Take Love. He may bust, but again gamble on greatness.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:59 pm 
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Dphins4me wrote:
Gamble on greatness. Take Love. He may bust, but again gamble on greatness.


I love Jordan Love, but isn't he also a one year wonder.....?

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:31 pm 
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Rich wrote:
I love Jordan Love, but isn't he also a one year wonder.....?

Yes, but not trading up and giving up a boat load of picks to get to No. 1 for him. Has a greater ceiling the Burrow. Did not take him 5 yrs and a transfer to get there. Declined because of graduation of his entire offense.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:04 pm 
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https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/ap ... 2020-class

Just came across this.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:46 am 
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While I'm stuck in my house for another week I'm going to do the antithesis of a Joe Burrow trade up:

Start studying James Morgan from FIU as a potential 3rd or 4th Round gem. He seems to be that underrated guy who showed the most in the pre draft events.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:52 am 
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He reminds me a lot of Jared Goff with his drop backs, throwing motion and anticipation on deep throws. From what I've read he has awesome intangibles.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:30 am 
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Dphins4me wrote:
Rich wrote:
I love Jordan Love, but isn't he also a one year wonder.....?

Yes, but not trading up and giving up a boat load of picks to get to No. 1 for him. Has a greater ceiling the Burrow. Did not take him 5 yrs and a transfer to get there. Declined because of graduation of his entire offense.


Do you have any cases of how one year wonders who took 5 seasons to get there and get drafted high do in the NFL to compare Burrow too? He seems like a very rare case so I figure its really hard to compare his story to someone else's. You say one year wonder QBs usually fail in the NFL and use all of these criteria of Burrow to identify him as a player that will surely fail in the NFL.

It seems to be Burrow is the exception to the rule and he got there because he busted his a$$. Work ethic and belief in self are also important traits.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:11 am 
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Rich wrote:

Do you have any cases of how one year wonders who took 5 seasons to get there and get drafted high do in the NFL to compare Burrow too? He seems like a very rare case


Yes, there certainly could be exceptions to that argument and Borrow could indeed be one, but the bigger issue here is I believe can the Dolphins risk it? For a team that lacks star talent at ALL positions, who has proven to be woefully inadequate in decades of drafts, it would be a significantly expensive move to jump up to 1 at the expense of the POTENTIAL to address so many other needs in a short span of two years (the drafts of 2020 and 2021). I highlight “potential” obviously because Grier has taught us to cover our heads in fear when they make a choice in the draft, but the odds of drafting wisely (and I will defer to our PhD in Virginia to give us those odds) obviously increase with 5 no. 1s in two years, and however many seconds. Most any draft pundit over 2, 3 years should be able to build up the roster, bring in at least two starting offensive linemen (I do not trust the Flowers signing at all and Dieter may be of the same mold ), one starting WR that stretches the field, a TE that isn’t one dimensional, a pass rushing threat and athletic emeffers at LB that have range and who can also play at the point of attack.

And before you say it, I know, what about a QB? There are options in 2020, all with some kind of question mark, much like Borrow I think, and there will be other options in 2021, when Miami has two no. 1s. Adding a QB, plus five other starters over two years thru the draft and FA, would be what Miami needs to do right now to be in the hunt in year 3 and beyond. It would be foolish to try and to do it all in one year by breaking the bank for that tempting no. 1, perhaps only to find themselves back in the same boat they’ve been in like forever it seems.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:23 am 
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Carson Palmer had terrible stats before a 5th year Heisman campaign. He was poised for greatness in Cincy before injuries happened.

Burrow doesn't have that arm strength but there is a strong comparison with how better coaching and the right situation made all the difference.

Kind of eerie how both ended up with Cincy


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:33 am 
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All I know is I watch the film, which is the most important thing here, on Burrow.... against top competition in big moments and he performs. What he does on the field against pro level talent in a pro style system is what best translates to the NFL.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:53 am 
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The more videos I watch the more I want Miami to get either Henry Ruggs or Jerry Jeudy.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:11 pm 
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Ruggs actually has a set of hands, which is rare for a burner.

Another guy I like is Devin Duvarney from Texas.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:16 pm 
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Rich wrote:
Do you have any cases of how one year wonders who took 5 seasons to get there and get drafted high do in the NFL to compare Burrow too? He seems like a very rare case so I figure its really hard to compare his story to someone else's. You say one year wonder QBs usually fail in the NFL and use all of these criteria of Burrow to identify him as a player that will surely fail in the NFL.

It seems to be Burrow is the exception to the rule and he got there because he busted his a$$. Work ethic and belief in self are also important traits.

No. Every player that gets there busted their arse. Just not and will never fall in love with QBs that suddenly ascend. Of course exceptions to the rule are always a thing, but follow that simple rule and you will not miss on many. NFL History is littered with college Qbs that got it one yr, drafted higher than they would have been & then flamed out.

I simply do not see special in Burrow. I see Andy Dalton plus.

Only time will tell like every college prospect. Like every yr. This is people best guess.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:26 pm 
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Dphins4me wrote:
Of course exceptions to the rule are always a thing, but follow that simple rule and you will not miss on many.


There isn’t any magical rule book sitting under a dusty couch in Texas somewhere that would give you odds better than a sub 30% hit rate.

The vast majority of QBs in the 1st round bust. Period.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:51 pm 
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carreramia wrote:
Rich wrote:

Do you have any cases of how one year wonders who took 5 seasons to get there and get drafted high do in the NFL to compare Burrow too? He seems like a very rare case


Yes, there certainly could be exceptions to that argument and Borrow could indeed be one, but the bigger issue here is I believe can the Dolphins risk it? For a team that lacks star talent at ALL positions, who has proven to be woefully inadequate in decades of drafts, it would be a significantly expensive move to jump up to 1 at the expense of the POTENTIAL to address so many other needs in a short span of two years (the drafts of 2020 and 2021). I highlight “potential” obviously because Grier has taught us to cover our heads in fear when they make a choice in the draft, but the odds of drafting wisely (and I will defer to our PhD in Virginia to give us those odds) obviously increase with 5 no. 1s in two years, and however many seconds. Most any draft pundit over 2, 3 years should be able to build up the roster, bring in at least two starting offensive linemen (I do not trust the Flowers signing at all and Dieter may be of the same mold ), one starting WR that stretches the field, a TE that isn’t one dimensional, a pass rushing threat and athletic emeffers at LB that have range and who can also play at the point of attack.

And before you say it, I know, what about a QB? There are options in 2020, all with some kind of question mark, much like Borrow I think, and there will be other options in 2021, when Miami has two no. 1s. Adding a QB, plus five other starters over two years thru the draft and FA, would be what Miami needs to do right now to be in the hunt in year 3 and beyond. It would be foolish to try and to do it all in one year by breaking the bank for that tempting no. 1, perhaps only to find themselves back in the same boat they’ve been in like forever it seems.


joe bUrrow does not deserve the Sam Gadanko treatment already. Not when he plays QB. (No one else will know what this means, but C' knows. LMAO!)


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:45 pm 
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AFCMiamiEast wrote:
There isn’t any magical rule book sitting under a dusty couch in Texas somewhere that would give you odds better than a sub 30% hit rate.

The vast majority of QBs in the 1st round bust. Period.
True, but go back over NFL history and its higher on one yr wonders drafted in the top 15. I'm not talking players over drafted because of the position. Just players no one considered worthy of even discussing the yr prior.


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:24 am 
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AFCMiamiEast wrote:
Dphins4me wrote:
Of course exceptions to the rule are always a thing, but follow that simple rule and you will not miss on many.


There isn’t any magical rule book sitting under a dusty couch in Texas somewhere that would give you odds better than a sub 30% hit rate.

The vast majority of QBs in the 1st round bust. Period.


But 54% of all NFL starting QBs in 2019 were 1st round picks, as well as 7% who were drafted in the second. Also, the likelihood of hitting on a QB after the 1st and 2nd round is drastically worse than the likelihood of hitting on one in the 1st.


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:16 am 
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LifeLongPhin wrote:
54% of all NFL starting QBs in 2019 were 1st round picks, as well as 7% who were drafted in the second. Also, the likelihood of hitting on a QB after the 1st and 2nd round is drastically worse than the likelihood of hitting on one in the 1st.


I agree. Not every team can get lucky like the Patriots did in drafting Tom Brady. That's a real rarity. I think the Dolphins need to draft a QB in the first round.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:35 am 
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prof123 wrote:

joe bUrrow does not deserve the Sam Gadanko treatment already. Not when he plays QB. (No one else will know what this means, but C' knows. LMAO!)


True about Burrow but unfortunately the rest of the Fins roster is so chock full of Sam Gandankos and Bubble Boys that not even the second coming of Joe Montana/Roger Staubach/Johnny U can cure.

And that one was an all-timer for sure. VOR and all. You gotta get DCMike over here.


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