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 Post subject: Detroit at Miami
PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:23 am 
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Your Miami Dolphins welcome the Detroit Lions this Sunday for a 1 PM game. Last night information came out that Miami QB Ryan Tannehill is unlikely to play this Sunday and will need 2-3 weeks of rest and rehab for his shoulder. This is why Vegas books haven't listed a line for the game. As of right now all I'm seeing is a couple say Detroit -1 with no over/under.

The Tannehill injury supposedly came during the 4th quarter of the Cincinnati game, not from the shot he took against Oakland. This is according to the guys at 3 Yards Per Carry (Simon Clancy, Chris Kouffman) and retweeted by Ethan Skolnick.

Let's cut to the chase. Backup QB Brock Osweiler showed he is more than capable of a spot start and running Adam Gase's offense. Now he'll have a chance to show if he can string together multiple good performances and make a case to be the hot hand at QB. His history suggests it won't happen but he has earned the opportunity. It will be different now that teams have film on him running the offense so buckle up for some fun.

Like Chicago, Detroit comes to town off their bye week. Sometimes this helps but often teams can be rusty. Rookie HC Matt Patricia hasn't been all that impressive in dialing up defenses but things can change quickly. Gase's offense in his first year was putrid after 5 games. The Lions are 2-3 but their offense has found its groove and have scored over 24 points per game since their Week 1 debacle. QB Matt Stafford is not Mitch Trubisky and will not be throwing interceptions at the goal line or missing open targets down field. Miami's defense will have to clamp down.

Miami's offense has found their own groove with using RB Frank Gore as the spark on 1st down. Last week he consistently got good yardage for Miami to set up 3rd and short. It also helps that the OL and receivers were not called for false starts and holding. The Lions' defense ranks 30th in rushing yards allowed so I imagine Gase will be calling on Gore early and often. RB Kenyan Drake had an emotional game this past Sunday so hopefully he comes out with a fire in his belly. He needs to stop dancing and start hitting the holes hard if he wants to reclaim the starting job. As a receiver he is still a very capable weapon.

The passing offense should do exactly what it did against the Bears. Keep it simple and let your speedy guys do damage after the catch. Matt Patricia has seen Gase's offense a few times so he should know what to expect and will try to interupt their routes. TE Nick O'Leary should provide a nice safety valve, along with Kenyan Drake, in the event of the downfield options not getting open. Osweiler did a very nice job with his presnap reads and getting the ball out on time. The OL did a much better job after getting obliterated by Cincinnati's Geno Atkins the prior week. Let's hope they hold it together once again and give the plays time to develop.

If Patricia is anything like his mentor Bill Belichick he is going to use all of his resources to take make Miami one dimensional. Against New England Miami faced 6 or 7 defensive backs to eliminate their speed element. For whatever reason they still couldn't run the ball or slow down a four man rush. My guess is Patricia is banking on that to help slow down the likes of Albert Wilson and Jakeem Grant. And for the love of all that is football, can Gase please dial up more quick slants? I don't think I've seen one fail yet when WR Danny Amendola or TE Mike Gesicki are the targets.

The Lions' offense will not be easy to contain. Stafford has very good targets in WRs Golden Tate, Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay. If Xavien Howard covers Golden Tate it will be a challenge for Cordrea Tankersly or Torry McTyer to cover the 6'4 Golladay. On the ground, rookie RB Kerryon Johnson has averaged near or over 6 yards per carry his last three games. Old nemesis Legarrette Blount serves as the power back and will be the short yardage weapon on 3rd downs. The true problem is Matt Stafford. There is no question Tom Brady is the best QB Miami has faced but Stafford's natural arm talent and assortment of weapons will probably present the biggest challenge to date for Miami's secondary.

I'm thinking Miami gets out to an early lead, things get tight going into the 4th quarter and then something happens to give Miami a late victory. Maybe its a Jakeem Grant punt return, a Kiko Alonso pick six, or a whacky play that puts them in field goal range. It worked with the pass off the defender's back and into WR Kenny Stills' hands last Sunday. Just feels like that type of game. Playing at home gives me confidence Miami pulls this out and they know a win is a must with the short week road game on Thursday.


Miami 28


Detroit 24


Go Phins!!!


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 Post subject: Re: Detroit at Miami
PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:04 pm 
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Nice write up Jammer as usually. I went back and looked at the stats about third downs of the previous 5 games verses the last game. I took out the third downs that were spikes, kneel downs or gotten by penalties so real attempts at third down as I see it.

In the previous 5 games 50% of the third down attempts were 7 yards and under and of course 50% at 8+ yards. In the game against the Bears, the Phins last game, 73% of the attempts 11 of 15 (there was a spiked ball to stop the clock on third down that was not counted) were of 7 yards or less.


The conversion rate at 7 yards and less in previous games is 55.5% and in the last game 54.5% virtually identical.

In the previous 5 games the Phins conversion rate of 8 yards and longer is a dismal 14.2 percent. In the last game it was 50% 2 out of 4 tries. It is of course a smaller sample size and one of the balls bounced off a defender into a Phins players hands to convert one of those.

In the previous 5 games about half of those longer 3rd downs were in the 12 yards plus range in the game against the Bears the longest attempt was thrid and 11.

I noticed on most of the 12 yards plus 3rd down attempts in previous games they often were due to a sack on the previous play. Imo opinion Tannehill has a probelm in the pocket and probably half the sacks he takes are because of his poor pocket awareness. That is just my opinion not backed up by any study.


My conclusion is like what you mention in you post we need to be running more on 1st and 2nd downs so that the 3rd and manageable keeps the chains moving. We do not have the Qb's imo to be consistently converting 3rd and long.


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 Post subject: Re: Detroit at Miami
PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:40 pm 
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Dont read these long posts.
Just gonna get right down to it.
This team is to fast for anybody on both sides of the ball.
Most oppurtunistic Defense in the league.
Miami 38
Detroit 13

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 Post subject: Re: Detroit at Miami
PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:06 pm 
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I have no idea what Brock will be so I'll pick us to win because we're better but im not pounding the table


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 Post subject: Re: Detroit at Miami
PostPosted: Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:56 pm 
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The whole Sun Sentinel staff picked Miami. That makes me very nervous. Still I love the matchups in this one except for their WRs do scare me a bit. Still, I'll put one foot on the bandwagon and say Miami wins another close one. 30-27.

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 Post subject: Re: Detroit at Miami
PostPosted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 7:35 am 
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New Vegas line is Detroit favored by 3 with a 46.5 over/under. This doesn't alter my prediction but Miami will need a little luck as well.


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 Post subject: Re: Detroit at Miami
PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 11:24 am 
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No Ziggy Ansah today. That should be a nice boost for Miami's OL.


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 Post subject: Re: Detroit at Miami
PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 1:32 pm 
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First drives for both teams.

Dolphins go 3 and out and do not score a TD for the 17th straight opening drive. They gave up a sack right up the middle on 2nd down, and this killed the drive as we cannot overcome negative plays. The Lions were ready for the run on first down and 3rd and long.

Lions made it all too easy with big play after big play. They even had a 1st and 25 play after a chop block, and made a first down on the first play. We gave up big runs to the outside by not setting the edge, and gave up the TD too easily with a pass to the TE. The Lions broke their 13 game scoreless streak on not scoring on the first drive.

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 Post subject: Re: Detroit at Miami
PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 1:39 pm 
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Dolphins next offensive series. Gase is giving the Lions a run heavy game plan and is trying to push his will against the Lions weak run defense. Their run defense has stepped it up, and Gase is mixing up the run with Wilson, but those plays won't work if the OL does not block better. I would say the middle of the OL needs to play better as they are giving too much penetration to the defensive line and not giving Gore room to hammer through. Everthing Gase has called so far is "safe" including the short pass that was immediately tackled at the catch. A lot of pressure on Osweiler. Lions are winning the battle in the trenches so far.

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 Post subject: Re: Detroit at Miami
PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 3:29 pm 
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If only our defense would give the offense a shot.

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 Post subject: Re: Detroit at Miami
PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 3:39 pm 
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This is painful game in so many ways, especially after the promising win last week.
1. Guys are getting hurt left and right. We miss Wilson.
2. The Lions have easily picked up chunk yards all day. Not us.
3. Can our defense get off the field? Have the Lions punted all day? The Lions are playing with Canadian rules, never needing third down.
4. No downfield shots at all. What happened to Parker? Is he really that hurt?


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 Post subject: Re: Detroit at Miami
PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 3:51 pm 
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Defense needs to do something here.

Credit to Brock, his stats (unable to watch the game) are showing decent numbers.

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 Post subject: Re: Detroit at Miami
PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 4:01 pm 
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Defense could not get off the field all game


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 Post subject: Re: Detroit at Miami
PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 4:05 pm 
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Score quick td, onside, and another td. What could go wrong?

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 Post subject: Re: Detroit at Miami
PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 4:09 pm 
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We lost. Look at the D stats.


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 Post subject: Re: Detroit at Miami
PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 4:13 pm 
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Lol miss the fg on second down

..sigh..

Why not you know try taking a shot on 2nd down or at least get closer?

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 Post subject: Re: Detroit at Miami
PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 9:09 pm 
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The defense flat stunk today. As usual, a tight end roasts our secondary....a pedestrian TE too. Team cant tackle and more injuries too. Dumb penalties. Oh well.

Pats rolling again. Phins sinking again. Same ol, same ‘ol. With the loss of Albert Wilson, half of our offense is gone.

Short week and then the Phins get humiliated once again on national TV.


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