My keys to the game:
1. Double team Gronk every freakin' play.
2. Somebody has to stop the Pats RBs from killing us in the passing game.
3. Our O-line has to win against their D-line in the running game.
4. Tannehill has to continue his season of making clutch throws and limiting mistakes.
5. As others have said, control the clock.
Follow this recipe and win.
Or just do what Gase says and win.
Just win, baby.
If Miami successfully executes this way they will win by at least a TD. Easier said than done.
If I'm putting money on Belichick's gameplan I think it is the following:
Copy what Gruden did early with Nelson. Have Chris Hogan and Philip Dorsett confuse the safety on where to help and get behind the corners. This will require good pass protection, which of course is a wild card.
He will run hard at Miami's interior who now lack William Hayes and Andre Branch. I wouldn't doubt he advises his OL to take subtle cheap shots to try and get a Miami player to fight back and be ejected the way the Raiders did last week. I'm very uneasy with Miami only adding Jonathan Woodward because the DL is now thin. Have to get more bodies so the rest don't get worn out.
Have Brady throw a bunch of 50/50 balls to Gronk knowing the refs are going to call PI all day in the Pats favor. Home game, hostile crowd and the refs ALWAYS do the Pats a solid in Foxboro.
Make Tannehill throw the ball. Expect a ton of press coverage to knock the speedy guys off their routes and kill timing. This would be the perfect game for Devante Parker and Mike Gesicki to step up and use their size. The Pats defense is very slow so Belichick will do everything he can to prevent Grant and Wilson from getting the ball in their hands.
Blitz the heck out of Tannehill. If the secondary can stifle guys for even a split second it will be sack/QB hit city on Tannehill. I believe NE gets Tre Flowers back who should be a big help. I just fear it will look like the early portions of the Jets game where Tannehill probably looked his worst this season.
Stopping Drake and Gore, which now is easier if Derby is out. I don't have much faith in Gesicki blocking and not sure Gase wants Smythe to get a ton of snaps. Might have to do a lot of Drake and Gore in the backfield at the same time, forcing the defense to wonder if either them or Tannehill will take off running. This also opens Tannehill up to more hits if he can't get out of bounds quick enough.
I'm not trying to be Negative Norman here, just stating the obvious. A lot of history would suggest this is the game Miami gets knocked down. Omar Kelly, who usually is the most pessimistic regarding Miami's chances, just wrote an article saying this is the best chance Miami has had in forever to pull off the upset. I'm trying my hardest to believe.