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 Post subject: Offseason Info
PostPosted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 8:48 am 
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Phinfever Draft Guru
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After yesterday's game both Armando Salguero and Barry Jackson confirmed a lot of stuff.

- Tannenbaum, Grier and Gase will all return with the same roles/influence

- Miami currently picks 11th in the draft (barring trades)

- Tannehill will return as starting QB

- Re-signing Landry is a priority

- Miami currently has about $17 million in cap space

- J. Thomas, Timmons and J. James will be released (frees up $22 million)

- Miami will ask Suh to restructure his deal (frees up $12 million)

- Tannehill and Pouncey may be asked to restructure their deals (could free up $9 million)

- Wake could be asked to renegotiate his deal (currently at $8.6 million)

I mentioned (and called it, patting myself on back) a lot of this stuff a month ago as what I thought Miami would do. If Miami stays put at the 11th pick keep your eyes on the following early draft targets:

- Baker Mayfield, QB OK (assassin style QB)

- Roquan Smith, LB GA (hybrid type that Matt Burke mentioned)

- Rashaan Evans, LB AL (perfect Timmons replacement)

- Vita Vea, DT UW (mammoth DT with great motor)

- Derwin James, S FSU (would allow McDonald to become hybrid)

- Marcus Davenport, DE LAT (mammoth DE)

- Clelin Ferrell, DE Clem (another big DE)


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 Post subject: Re: Offseason Info
PostPosted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:03 pm 
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Well we were wondering if Gase and Cutler could duplicate their success that everyone talked about having such a great season in Chicago and at 6-10 they did.
No problem bringing him and Grier back. They are best at what they do. Not a Tannenbaum guy and I question his abilities.
But this team is close. Especially on offense where 17 will have all these weapons. Tweak the oline and re evaluate some of these guys on Defense.
You cant convince me that we are not the second best team in the division when healthy and the only team in the division who has shown they can beat NE who will be in decine with a aging Brady who clearly is not as sharp in the latter part of the season. They will regret trading Garapolo. Great things ahead for the Dolphins.

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GASE IS ON THE CASE!!! 2017 , 2018 , 2019 SB CHAMPIONS.


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 Post subject: Re: Offseason Info
PostPosted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:18 pm 
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I'll give you credit for posting all the rumors in one thread, even they don't all come true. Nice work, and keep it up.


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 Post subject: Re: Offseason Info
PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:15 pm 
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Wow, three huge items of breaking news tonight:

Miami hired Dowell Loggains as their new OC. Christensen stays in some capacity. Gase will continue to call plays. Word is that Loggains is very good at bringing some balance and organizing a good ground attack.

Sam Darnold has declared for the draft. This was not expected. Why is it huge for Miami? Well he's probably a top 5 pick and pushes an elite talent further down to the 11th spot for Miami. The popular name right now is Derwin James, the free safety from FSU.

According to Armando Salguero, Jarvis Landry's return is no longer looking good. Salguero wrote an article saying today's press conference (and some sources) painted a rather grim picture for Landry coming back. The emotional outburst and ejection were the peak of some problems that had been brewing. Remember, when Byron Maxwell and Jay Ajayi went rogue with their assignments they were shown the door. Ajayi was thought to be the center piece of the offense. Salguero points out that sometimes Landry listens and sometimes he does not. He had begun to show a new professionalism but in the final two games he had a shouting match with Gase and then the ejection (Landry and Fales had a good connection and Fales could have used him on that final comeback drive).

If I'm the GM I'm re-signing Landry, especially if Tannehill is coming back as a starter. They had good chemistry. I'd also ask, who fills the void? Parker is always hurt, Grant is tiny, Carroo doesn't see the field and Ford was on IR. Hard to see a rookie come in and provide those quality snaps. Tannenbaum loves to wheel and deal. Is there a WR he can trade for?


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 Post subject: Re: Offseason Info
PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:20 pm 
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Not resigning Landry would be a big loss for this offense.


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 Post subject: Re: Offseason Info
PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:35 pm 
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This is what I guessed. We'll be a better team by subtraction. Landry can easily be replaced and cheaper too.


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 Post subject: Re: Offseason Info
PostPosted: Thu Jan 04, 2018 8:02 am 
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zatrex99 wrote:
This is what I guessed. We'll be a better team by subtraction. Landry can easily be replaced and cheaper too.


If they are going down this road I hope they at least tag and trade him rather than just a comp pick. He can probably net a 2nd Rounder.

You are correct, unless you are a physical specimen (AJ Green) or an insane route runner (Antonio Brown), the receiver position can be replaceable (not sure I agree with easily). Replacing Landry's hands and incredible YAC ability will be a major challenge.

The biggest problem will be Landry wanting $14-15 million per year and Miami probably staying in the $10-11 million range. Have to wonder if a team with a need and cap room might be willing to swing a deal. San Francisco still has a 2nd Rounder from a trade with the Saints and may want to lock up a WR for Jimmy G. The Browns could move a 2nd easily.

Miami will have the cap space to sign Landry once they cut James, Thomas and Timmons (frees up $20 million). Should be interesting to watch this drama play out.


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 Post subject: Re: Offseason Info
PostPosted: Thu Jan 04, 2018 9:39 am 
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jammer wrote:
zatrex99 wrote:
This is what I guessed. We'll be a better team by subtraction. Landry can easily be replaced and cheaper too.


If they are going down this road I hope they at least tag and trade him rather than just a comp pick. He can probably net a 2nd Rounder.

You are correct, unless you are a physical specimen (AJ Green) or an insane route runner (Antonio Brown), the receiver position can be replaceable (not sure I agree with easily). Replacing Landry's hands and incredible YAC ability will be a major challenge..


Here is a few possibles.
(They may get signed between now and when they could hit the market)

Marqise Lee
Allen Robinson
Jordan Matthews
Kendall Wright
Brandon Tate

These are the two I'd love to have to replace Landry. And they both should be cheaper, like around 8 million a year.

Martavis Bryant
Terrelle Pryor


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 Post subject: Re: Offseason Info
PostPosted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:29 am 
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Did some digging and found actual contract restructure numbers for some of the bigger deals. If you restructure you're making harder to release the player in 2019 or beyond.

Suh - $26 million to $10.7 million

Tannehill - $19.8 million to $11.1 million

R. Jones - $11.5 million to $6.6 million

Branch - $10 million to $3.3 million

Stills - $9.7 million to $4.8 million

Alonso - $9.6 million to $4.7 million

Pouncey - $9 million to $4.7 million

Granted each player has to agree but there is a potential $50 million in cap savings for 2018 by doing this.

In terms of releasing players post June 1st (I believe you can only designate two with that distinction) versus pre June 1st:

Cap savings:

Suh - $3.9 million vs $17 million

Tannehill - $15.2 million vs $17.5 million

Branch - -$1.9 million vs $100K

Alonso - -$3.75 million vs -$25K

Pouncey - $7 million vs $8 million

I don't think Jones or Stills would be cut, nor Suh for that matter but I wanted to show his number.

Those release numbers also include if the player is traded.

If I were to guess, I'd say its likely Suh and Tannehill restructure while Branch could be designated a post June 1 cut (unless this rumor of him playing injured is true). I also think Miami could field trade calls for Tannehill (hello Jacksonville!) if he refuses to restructure.


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 Post subject: Re: Offseason Info
PostPosted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:41 pm 
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jammer wrote:
Did some digging and found actual contract restructure numbers for some of the bigger deals. If you restructure you're making harder to release the player in 2019 or beyond.

Suh - $26 million to $10.7 million

Tannehill - $19.8 million to $11.1 million

R. Jones - $11.5 million to $6.6 million

Branch - $10 million to $3.3 million

Stills - $9.7 million to $4.8 million

Alonso - $9.6 million to $4.7 million

Pouncey - $9 million to $4.7 million

Granted each player has to agree but there is a potential $50 million in cap savings for 2018 by doing this.

In terms of releasing players post June 1st (I believe you can only designate two with that distinction) versus pre June 1st:

Cap savings:

Suh - $3.9 million vs $17 million

Tannehill - $15.2 million vs $17.5 million

Branch - -$1.9 million vs $100K

Alonso - -$3.75 million vs -$25K

Pouncey - $7 million vs $8 million

I don't think Jones or Stills would be cut, nor Suh for that matter but I wanted to show his number.

Those release numbers also include if the player is traded.

If I were to guess, I'd say its likely Suh and Tannehill restructure while Branch could be designated a post June 1 cut (unless this rumor of him playing injured is true). I also think Miami could field trade calls for Tannehill (hello Jacksonville!) if he refuses to restructure.


Thanks for the research, Dan. My guess would be the Tannehill and Suh will both restructure. Wouldn't be surprised to see it with Pouncey as well, though it might not be as smart for the team. I'll be mildly surprised if Branch is cut, as they just extended him. I'd rather see him restructure, though I might feel the same way about him as Pouncey.

I'm sure many teams would be happy to have RT, but I think it is extremely unlikely that we trade him. I still think we ride with him in 2018 and draft a QB in the first 3 rounds, depending on how things play out.


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 Post subject: Re: Offseason Info
PostPosted: Tue Jan 09, 2018 12:50 pm 
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k-dash wrote:
I still think we ride with him in 2018 and draft a QB in the first 3 rounds, depending on how things play out.


This is where I struggle mightily. On one hand I'm glad Miami has a top 15 QB who gives you a chance to win on most Sundays. I'll take that over knowing 5 or 6 wins is the ceiling any day of the week.

On the other hand I don't want to be Cincy or Baltimore where the playoffs are good enough, or I need to make sure my defense and supporting cast is really good. Its easier to build those than it is to find an elite QB, that much I'll grant you. But New Orleans, who have wasted years of Brees's talent, now have a shot at the Super Bowl because Brees is on the roster.

So I look at the draft and I see 3 QBs who have elite potential (Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield), 3 QBs who can start some day but not necessarily upgrades (Jackson, Allen, Rudolph) and a bunch of projects and NFL backups (I think Falk could start in the right system).

Do I sell out for a guy who comes in with more upside than Tannehill? Should I call up Cleveland and say I'll give you Tannehill, the 11th pick and a 2019 pick for the rights to Darnold while signing a McCown type? Should I offer them Tannehill and the 11th pick (assuming they take Darnold but want a vet for 2018) for the 4th pick and the rights to Mayfield? (for the record I want no part of Rosen)

Or do I spend my 3rd Rounder on Rudolph and give Tannehill another year or two knowing a lot of other things need to fall into place to be a contender (not just a wild card team)?

I could be swayed in either direction right now.


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